globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6279148
论文题名:
气候变化影响下的赣江流域水资源变化趋势与幅度分析
其他题名: Analysis on variation trend and amplitude of water resources in Ganjiang River Basin under impact of climate change
作者: 刘璇1; 郭家力2; 张静文3; 潘仁伟3; 邹东景3; 史虹键3
刊名: 水利水电技术
ISSN: 1000-0860
出版年: 2018
卷: 49, 期:6, 页码:683-691
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 赣江流域 ; 统计降尺度 ; 新安江水文模型 ; 水资源量 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: Ganjiang River Basin ; statistical downscaling methods ; Xinanjiang Hydrological Model ; volume of water resources ; climate change
WOS学科分类: ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Engineering
中文摘要: 利用全球气候模式输出结果,经统计降尺度模型降解后得到流域尺度的降水和气温要素,根据实测资料建立气温蒸发回归关系以及新安江水文模型,使用耦合模拟和MK趋势分析评估未来气候变化情景下赣江流域水资源量的变化趋势和幅度。研究结果表明:未来不同排放情景下的年降水量、年蒸发量和年径流量等水文气候要素变化趋势以显著增加为主。未来年降水量、年蒸发量和年径流量的多年平均值相对基准期有较小幅度增加,最大增幅为年径流量的13. 81%。降水、蒸发和径流的年内变化有明显的季节性特征,汛期径流增加、非汛期径流减少的不均匀情况加剧,在一定程度上可能增加赣江流域未来的防洪压力和枯水期供水压力。
英文摘要: With the output result of global climate model,the essential factors of river basin scale precipitation and temperature are obtained through downscaling the relevant statistical downscaling scale-model. A temperature-evaporation regression relationship and Xinanjiang hydrological model are established according to the measured data,and then the variation trend and amplitude of the water resources in Ganjiang River Basin under the future climate changing scenarios is estimated and analyzed with coupling simulation and MK trend. The study result shows that the changing trends of the meteorological and hydrological factors, such as annual precipitation,annual evaporation,annual runoff,etc. ,under different future emission scenarios are mainly significantly increased. The multi-year mean values of the annual precipitation,annual evaporation and annual runoff in the future are to be increased to a small extent with the maximum increasing amplitude of 13. 81% of the annual runoff if compared with those of the relative reference period. The intra-annual variations of precipitation,evaporation and runoff have obvious seasonal characteristics, while the non-uniforms of the increase of runoff during flood period and decrease of runoff during non-flood season are aggravated,which are possibly to increase both the pressures from the flood control and the water supply during dry season in future to a certain extent.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154846
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.三峡大学水利与环境学院
2.天津大学建筑工程学院,
3., 宜昌
4., 湖北
5.天津 443002
6.300072, 中国
7.三峡大学水利与环境学院
8.三峡大学
9.水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,
10.梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室
11.水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心, 宜昌
12.宜昌
13.武汉, 湖北
14.湖北
15.湖北 443002
16.443002
17.430072, 中国
18.三峡大学水利与环境学院, 宜昌, 湖北 443002, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘璇,郭家力,张静文,等. 气候变化影响下的赣江流域水资源变化趋势与幅度分析[J]. 水利水电技术,2018-01-01,49(6):683-691
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