globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6158249
论文题名:
基于陆地生态系统模型的气候变化条件下中国未来水分状况趋势分析
其他题名: Temporal Patterns of Water Condition in China Under Climate Change Based on Terrestrial Ecosystem Modelling
作者: 杨艳1; 丁菊花1; 江洪2; 彭长辉3; 朱求安1
刊名: 水土保持研究
ISSN: 1005-3409
出版年: 2018
卷: 25, 期:2, 页码:689-704
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 陆地生态系统 ; 水分格局 ; IBIS模型 ; 气候变化
英文关键词: terrestrial ecosystems ; water resources ; IBIS ; climate change
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 评估区域陆地生态系统未来水分平衡是生态系统与全球变化科学研究的重要科学问题之一。利用IPCC相关气候模式生成的历史及未来的气候情景数据作为陆地生态系统模型的输入,并考虑CO_2浓度的变化,研究了气候变化及CO_2浓度倍增效应对中国未来水资源状况的影响。结果表明:对不同情景的模拟(HC3AA,HC3GG,SresA2,SresB1),未来中国全国平均降水水平基本呈现出逐渐增加的趋势,气温水平呈显著上升的趋势,蒸散发水平表现出持续增长的态势,径流则出现了不同的丰水与枯水的时段;在CO_2浓度倍增的情景下,蒸散发量相对于CO_2浓度非倍增的情景下的水平要稍低,而径流相对于CO_2浓度非倍增的情景下的水平则要稍高,这一点在2050年之后表现更为明显。
英文摘要: Assessing the future water balance of regional terrestrial ecosystems is one of the important scientific problems in ecosystem and global change research. Using historical and future climate scenarios generated from IPCC-related climate models as input to the terrestrial ecosystem model and considering changes in CO_2 concentrations,we study the effects of climate change and CO_2 concentration doubling on China's future water resources. The results show that the average precipitation in China is gradually increasing, the temperature level is increasing, and the evapotranspiration levels show the trend of sustained growth, and the runoff is the emergence of different wet and dry season. In the scenario of doubled CO_2 concentration,the evapotranspiration is slightly lower than that under non-doubled CO_2 concentration, while the runoff is slightly higher than that in non-doubled CO_2 concentration scenarios. The performance will be more obvious after 2050.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/154889
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.西北农林科技大学林学院生态预测与全球变化研究中心, 杨凌, 陕西 712100, 中国
2.南京大学国际地球系统科学研究所, 南京, 江苏 210093, 中国
3.西北农林科技大学林学院生态预测与全球变化研究中心
4.魁北克大学蒙特利尔分校环境科学研究所,
5., 杨凌
6.蒙特利尔, 陕西
7.加拿大 712100
8.C3H3P8, 中国

Recommended Citation:
杨艳,丁菊花,江洪,等. 基于陆地生态系统模型的气候变化条件下中国未来水分状况趋势分析[J]. 水土保持研究,2018-01-01,25(2):689-704
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