globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6281363
论文题名:
渭河流域河川径流对气候变化的时空响应机理
其他题名: Spatiotemporal Response Mechanism of Runoff to Climate Change in the Wei River Basin
作者: 黎云云1; 畅建霞1; 王於琪2; 金文婷1; 郭爱军1; 樊晶晶3
刊名: 应用基础与工程科学学报
ISSN: 1005-0930
出版年: 2018
卷: 26, 期:3, 页码:713-721
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 响应 ; 情景分析 ; 渭河流域
英文关键词: SWAT ; SWAT ; climate change ; response ; climate scenarios ; the Wei River Basin
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 基于流域DEM、土地利用、土壤等空间数据,以及降雨、气温等气象数据,构建了渭河流域SWAT模型分区径流模拟平台,分析了历史气候变化对流域径流的时空影响;通过气候情景假设法,进一步研究了该流域河川径流对未来气候变化特征的时空响应.结果表明:在时间上,1990s气候变化对径流的减少程度大于2000s,减少贡献率分别约为75%和50%;年降雨增加/减少5%,年径流增加/减少10%~ 15%,年气温增加/减少0. 5℃/1℃,年径流减少/增加幅度小于3%;季降雨增加5%或减少5%/10%,各季径流响应程度差异不大,但当季降雨增加到10%时,冬季径流增加显著(约50%);春季和冬季径流对气温降低较敏感,秋季和冬季径流对气温升高较敏感,季气温增加或减少0. 5℃/1℃,季径流变幅均小于10%.在空间上,历史气候变化对径流的影响程度为:上游大于下游,泾河大于北洛河;年径流对降雨的响应空间差异不大,但对气温上升的敏感度干流大于支流,对气温降低的敏感度干流小于支流;季径流对气候变化的空间响应均为干流大于支流.
英文摘要: Using the spatial data (DEM,land use and soil darta) and Meteorological data (precipitation and temperature data) , the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to the Wei River Basin (WRB) . Based on the (SWAT) model, the spatiotemporal response mechanisms of runoff to climate change were assessed in the WRB. Results show that: (1) the SWAT model has suitable application in the WRB with R2 > 0. 6,Ens > 0. 5 and Re < 20%; (2) both the climate change in the 1990s and 2000s have adverse impacts on runoff,and the runoff decrement degrees are gradually weakened from the 1990s (75%) to 2000s (50%) and from upstream to downstream; (3) the annual runoff is negatively/positive correlated with the annual temperature/precipitation; no matter the annual temperature decrease or increase 0. 5℃/1℃, the runoff change percentages are less than 3%; a 5% increase or decrease of annual precipitation would lead to a 10% ~ 15% increase or decrease of runoff respectively; (4) the runoff in spring and winter are more sensitive to the decrease of temperature,while the runoff in autumn and winter are more sensitive to the increase of temperature; the seasonal precipitation has positive impact on the seasonal runoff and the impact degree in of mainstream is greater than that in the tributary.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155027
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.西安理工大学, 陕西省省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 西安, 陕西 710048, 中国
2.绵阳市气象局, 绵阳, 四川 621000, 中国
3.河北工程大学水利水电学院, 邯郸, 河北 056038, 中国

Recommended Citation:
黎云云,畅建霞,王於琪,等. 渭河流域河川径流对气候变化的时空响应机理[J]. 应用基础与工程科学学报,2018-01-01,26(3):713-721
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