globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD ID: CSCD:6254489
Title:
气候与下垫面变化对新安江上游(屯溪站)径流变化贡献率的定量分析
Alternative Title: Quantitative evaluation of contributions of climate change and underlying surface change to the runoff at the upper catchment of Xin'anjiang ( Tunxi Hydrological Station)
Author: 肖志强1; 兰佳2; 李慧赟3; 吴志旭2; 罗潋葱3; 陈明渊4
Source Publication: 云南大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN: 0258-7971
Publishing Year: 2018
Volume: 40, Issue:3, Pages:724-734
Language: 中文
keyword in Chinese: 屯溪水文站 ; 年径流量 ; 变点分析 ; Mann-Kendall统计检验 ; Pettitt检验 ; 弹性系数法
Keyword: Tunxi Hydrological Station ; annual runoff ; change -point analysis ; Mann -Kendall test ; Pettitt test ; elastic coefficient method
WOS Category: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS Research Area: Geology
Abstract: 采用Mann-Kendall统计检验、Pettitt检验、弹性系数法对19552013年新安江上游屯溪水文站(以下简称屯溪站)的年平均径流量变化进行了分析,发现该站年平均径流量在1968年出现突变点,整个时段内没有明显的单调性变化趋势.在1968年后,屯溪站多年平均径流量总体增加了约19%,其中气候变化导致该时段内径流量的增加量约为30%,其中包括降雨量增加对径流增加的贡献约19%和蒸发量减少对径流增加的贡献量约11%,而下垫面变化(主要为土地利用变化)则导致1968年后屯溪站多年平均径流减少约11%.因此,气候变化(降雨增加和蒸发减少)是1968年后屯溪站多年平均径流量显著增加的主要原因,而下垫面的变化则导致了该站多年平均径流量的减少.
English Abstract: Tunxi Hydrological Station ( THS) is located at the upper catchment of Xin'anjiang.The time-serial runoff data during 19552013 at THS were analyzed based on Mann-Kendall test,Pettitt test and elastic coefficient methods.The results show there is no significant increase /decrease trend,while the abrupt change point of runoff was found in 1968.The Annual Mean Runoff ( AMR) at THS has increased by 19% after 1968 with the fractional contribution of climate change to AMR increase by 30% and the fractional contribution of underlying surface change to AMR decrease by 11%.The increased precipitation has contributed to AMR increase by 19% while the decreased evaporation has contributed to AMR increase by 11%.Therefore climate change has been the main factor leading to AMR increase at THS after 1968 while the underlying surface change has slightly contributed to AMR decrease at this station.
Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155113
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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Affiliation: 1.暨南大学生态学系, 广州, 广东 510632, 中国
2.淳安县环境保护监测站, 淳安, 浙江 311700, 中国
3.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所, 南京, 江苏 210008, 中国
4.杭州市环境监测中心站, 杭州, 浙江 310007, 中国

Recommended Citation:
肖志强,兰佳,李慧赟,等. 气候与下垫面变化对新安江上游(屯溪站)径流变化贡献率的定量分析[J]. 云南大学学报. 自然科学版,2018-01-01,40(3):724-734
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