globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6400939
论文题名:
湖南省非一致性极端高温频率特征分析
其他题名: Frequency Analysis of Non-Stationary Extreme High Temperature in Hunan Province
作者: 王磊1; 贺新光1; 谭子芳2; 刘雯3
刊名: 长江流域资源与环境
ISSN: 1004-8227
出版年: 2018
卷: 27, 期:12, 页码:736-749
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 非一致性 ; 重现期 ; 极端高温 ; 湖南省
英文关键词: non-stationary ; return period ; extreme high temperature ; Hunan province
WOS学科分类: GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 受气候变化和人类活动等因素影响,水文气象时间序列失去了一致性。以湖南省89个气象站点1960 ~ 2013年逐日气温资料为基础,选取年平均日最高温度(AMMT)和超过95th分位值的平均日最高温度(POT),研究非一致性条件下湖南省极端高温指数的频率特征。结果表明:湖南省89个站点中有59个站点(66.3%)的AMMT序列和23个站点(25.8%)的POT序列呈现显著的非一致性。利用线性矩法和Cramer-von Mises(CM)检验等方法,发现广义正态分布(GNO)函数能较好地拟合研究区极端高温指数序列。通过还原途径修正非一致性序列,并对修正前、后不同重现期水平下的极端高温指数的估算值进行对比,发现气候变化条件下AMMT序列在湘北、湘中和湘东南地区呈现强度增强和重现期缩短的趋势,而POT序列仅在湘北和湘东南地区呈现出相似的频率特征变化。
英文摘要: The time series of hydrometeorology has lost its consistency,because of the influences of climate change and human activities. Based on the daily temperature data during the period of 1960-2013 in 89 meteorological stations over Hunan Province,the annual mean maximum temperature (AMMT) and peak over threshold (POT) are selected to detect the inconsistent characteristics of the extreme high temperature indices. The results showed that there were significant inconsistencies in the AMMT series of 59 sites (66.3%) and the POT series of 23 sites (25.8%) out of 89 stations. The parameters of five extreme distributions GLO,GEV, GPA,GNO and PE3 are estimated by using the L-moments method. From the results of Cramer-von Mises (CM) test,we found that the GNO distribution function can better fit the series of extreme high temperature indices in Hunan Province. The non-stationary series is modified by the reduction pathway. Based on the GNO model,we calculated the estimated return levels for both the modified and non-modified extreme series at different return periods and assessed the changes of the extreme series at three different return periods. Under the conditions of climate change,the AMMT series showed an enhanced trend of intensity and a shortened trend of the return period in north Hunan,central Hunan and southeast Hunan. However,the POT series showed similar frequency characteristics variation only in northern Hunan and southeastern Hunan.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155162
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院
2.湖南师范大学,
3.地理空间大数据挖掘与应用湖南省重点实验室, 长沙
4.长沙, 湖南
5.湖南 410081
6.410081, 中国
7.湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院, 长沙, 湖南 410081, 中国
8.湖南城市学院信息与电子工程学院, 益阳, 湖南 413002, 中国

Recommended Citation:
王磊,贺新光,谭子芳,等. 湖南省非一致性极端高温频率特征分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境,2018-01-01,27(12):736-749
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