Extreme drought events and rural poverty: differences on farmers'adaptive behavior and production impacts among different income groups in North China Plain
Under these contexts that increasing serious impacts of extreme climate events on agriculture production have gradually aggravated rural poverty,and North China Plain (hereinafter NCP) ,as one of main grain yield regions,have faced the increasing challenges from extreme climate events,this paper empirically analyzes the differences on farms'adaptive responses to extreme drought events and production impacts of them among different rural income groups in NCP to provide the empirical evidences for planning and implementing policies on adaptation measures against climate change and poverty alleviation. Using a large-scale survey of 1 663 wheat plots of 889 households of 5 provinces in NCP,this paper builds two-stage econometric model to do quantitative analysis. The main results of this study show that: ①Relative to the high income groups,the low income groups significantly decrease by 0.12 times of irrigation and 2.1% of probability on adopting surface pipe to extreme drought events due to the weakness of their human capital, society capital,and production capital. ②When wheat is shocked by a severe drought,the wheat loss will reduce by about 21% with an increase of one time of irrigation and 12% on the conditions of adopting surface pipe. ③Relative to the high income groups,the low income groups obviously increase the loss of about 2%-3%. Based on the above conclusions,when formulating and implementing poverty alleviation policies,government should take consideration on the impacts of extreme climate events. Specifically,to improve farmers'adaptive capacity (especial for the low income groups) and well implement poverty alleviation policies,government should pay attention to the impact of human capital,society capital,and production capital. When more severe drought occurs,government should improve irrigation technologies by enhancing irrigation intensity and increasing irrigation efficiency,to mitigate its negative effects and realize poverty alleviation.