globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6350777
论文题名:
中国应对气候变化的战略进程与角色转型:从防范黑天鹅灾害到迎战灰犀牛风险
其他题名: Evolution and transformation of China's climate change strategy: from preventingBlack Swan'disasters to reducingGray Rhino'risks
作者: 潘家华1; 张莹1
刊名: 中国人口·资源与环境
ISSN: 1002-2104
出版年: 2018
卷: 28, 期:10, 页码:765-771
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 中国 ; 气候变化 ; 战略转型 ; 黑天鹅 ; 灰犀牛
英文关键词: China ; climate change ; strategic transformation ; Black Swan ; Gray Rhino
WOS学科分类: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
中文摘要: 全球气候治理对于气候风险的认识一直在不断发展。国际气候谈判启动伊始,主导力量呼吁各国根据共同但有区别的责任原则积极进行温室气体减排,致力于防止出现难以预料但影响巨大的黑天鹅式的气候灾害。而当前各国减排力度与全球温控目标仍存在明显的差距,人类社会极有可能面临的大概率、影响大的灰犀牛式的气候风险。中国曾多次面临极端气候事件,但在新中国成立之后陆续建设的各类基础设施,提升了全社会应对自然灾害和气候灾害的能力及水平。从国际社会输入国内的对全球性气候变化的认知,强化了中国对灾变性气候黑天鹅事件的防范意识。随着中国工业化和城市化进程的推进,气候变化可能导致的自然灾害成为严重威胁中国可持续发展的灰犀牛风险。在这种认识转变的背景下,中国应对气候变化的战略进程,经历了灾害防范、科学参与、权益维护、发展协同和贡献引领5个阶段。中国气候战略转型的主要原因在于化石能源燃烧所排放的二氧化碳总量的快速攀升、经济发展水平和能力的增强,以及中国生态环境面临的严峻压力。面对全球性的气候变化问题,中国不仅从自身情况出发去积极应对,也在为全球安全做出贡献。当前,国内深化推进生态文明建设,对气候变化的态度已经转为主动积极去迎战具有灰犀牛属性的气候变化风险。中国应对气候变化的国家战略,已经转变为强化国内行动完善中国特色的中国方案,在国际主动引领国际气候进程,迎战威胁人类未来的气候风险。
英文摘要: The awareness of climate risk is evolving continuously under the global climate governance framework. In the initiation of the international climate negotiations process,the leading forces called on countries to actively reduce greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the principle ofcommon but differentiated responsibilities'and work to prevent Black Swan-like climate disasters which are unpredictable but have huge impacts. However,there is still a clear gap between the current national emission reduction efforts and the global temperature control target. Humans are likely to face the high probability and impact of theGrey Rhino'type of climate risk. China has faced extreme weather events many times,but the various infrastructures built after the founding of People's Republic of China have enhanced the ability and level of the society to cope with natural disasters and climate disasters. The domestic understanding of global climate change originally came from international societies. China's initial awareness of the prevention of the Black Swan'incidents in the catastrophic climate strengthened over time. With the advancement of China's industrialization and urbanization,natural disasters caused by climate change have become aGrey Rhino'risk that seriously threatens China's sustainable development. In the context of this shift in understanding the risks,the focus of China's national strategy in response to the impact of climate change has gone through five phases: disaster prevention; participation in scientific research; asserting and defending rights, coordinating development and becoming a leading contributor to positive change. A number of factors worked conjointly to drive the strategic shift for China from passively responding toBlack Swan'climate disasters only to taking proactive measures to manage the Gray Rhino'risks associated with global climate change. These factors include the precipitous rise in CO_2 emission attributable to the burning of fossil fuels,rapid economic growth,the strengthening of China's national capabilities in all aspects,and the severe and growing environmental stress. In the face of issues related to climate change,China has not only done the right thing for itself,but has also made massive contributions towards improving security and safety at the international level.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155335
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所
2.中国社会科学院生态文明研究智库,
3.,
4., 北京
5.北京 100028
6.100081, 中国

Recommended Citation:
潘家华,张莹. 中国应对气候变化的战略进程与角色转型:从防范黑天鹅灾害到迎战灰犀牛风险[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2018-01-01,28(10):765-771
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