globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6337802
论文题名:
气候变化下的农业生产率再估计
其他题名: Research on Agricultural Productivity in China From the Climate Change View
作者: 高鸣
刊名: 中国软科学
ISSN: 1005-0566
出版年: 2018
期: 9, 页码:766-769
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 农业生产率 ; 要素分解 ; 气候变化 ; 窗口DEA
英文关键词: agricultural productivity ; elements decomposition ; climate change ; window DEA
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS POLICY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 本文使用新技术窗口DEA中的Window Malmquist指数模型,使用1978 - 2013年的中国31个省(区)的面板数据,估算了传统农业生产率和气候变化下农业生产率变化情况,并分阶段、分区域比较分析了传统农业生产率和气候变化下农业生产率的差异,以期回答我国农业生产率是否被低估。实证分析后发现:(1) 1978 - 2013年,有60%年份的气候变化下农业生产率小于传统农业生产率,即传统农业生产率在大部分年份是被高估的。气候变化下的农业生产率更为稳定,表明气候因素对稳定农业生产具有一定的作用。(2)日照时数、降水量的增加有利于西部地区农业生产率的提升,西部地区也是受益于气候变化最明显的地区。1978 - 2013年,气候因素限制了中国中部地区的传统农业大省的农业生产率,尽管该地区的农业生产率有了提升。(3)技术效率的累积变化和技术进步是推动气候变化下的农业生产率提升的主要贡献因素。(4)在不同政策时期内,气候变化对农业生产率的影响差异较大。对此,本文提出相关对策建议。
英文摘要: This paper used the Window Malmquist index method,using the panel data of 1978 - 2013 on 31 provinces in China,to measure the agricultural productivity from the climate change perspective.And then,this paper divided all samples in different groups to make a deep analysis.As the research results,this paper found:Firstly,the traditional agricultural productivity was over-evaluated and it must consider the influence of climate change.Climate change could make the agricultural productivity more stable.Secondly,sunlight and precipitation drove the agricultural productivity in western China.During 1978 - 2013,climate change had a negative effect on Central China.Thirdly,technical efficiency and technical progress could have a crucial role in agricultural productivity under climate change view.At last,in different policy period,climate change had different effect on agricultural productivity.Refer to the conclusion,this paper gave the policy suggestions.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155341
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 农业农村部农村经济研究中心, 北京 100810, 中国

Recommended Citation:
高鸣. 气候变化下的农业生产率再估计[J]. 中国软科学,2018-01-01(9):766-769
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