globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6518881
论文题名:
青海高原典型生态区域未来气候变化趋势预估
其他题名: Forecast of future climate change trend in typical ecological regions of the Qinghai Plateau
作者: 韩有香1; 刘彩红2; 李国山3
刊名: 草业科学
ISSN: 1001-0629
出版年: 2019
卷: 36, 期:6, 页码:79-89
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气温 ; 降水 ; 青海高原 ; 典型 ; 生态区域 ; 气候变化预估 ; RCPs情景 ; 未来
英文关键词: temperature ; precipitation ; Qinghai Plateau ; typical ; ecological region ; predict climate change ; RCPs ; future
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 利用RCPs情景,对青海高原典型生态功能区2019-2050年气温和降水变化趋势进行了研究。结果表明:在RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5三种排放情景下,三江源地区、祁连山地区、柴达木盆地地区、青海湖地区和河湟地区5个生态功能区的年平均气温均呈升高趋势;在RCP 2.6和RCP 4.5情景下河湟地区的年降水量呈减少趋势,其他4个地区的年降水量呈增加趋势,在RCP 8.5情景下,5个生态功能区的年降水量均呈增加趋势。通过年代际分析发现,在RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5 3种排放情景下2040-2049年年平均气温达到高峰,而且在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下2040-2049年5个生态功能区的气温达到2.0~ 2.1 ℃和2.4~ 2.5 ℃ 。通过M-K检验发现,在RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下5个生态功能区的年平均气温均发生了突变,但发生突变的时间不一样。柴达木盆地地区的降水在3种情景下,在不同的年份中发生了突变;青海湖地区的降水在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下发生了突变;祁连山地区的降水在RCP 4.5情景下发生了突变;河湟地区的降水在RCP 2.6情景下发生了突变,三江源地区的降水在RCP 8.5情景下发生了突变。通过累积距平检验可知,在RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5 3种情景下,5个生态功能区年平均气温和降水量的累积距平曲线均呈上升趋势,表明2019-2050年是气温偏暖,降水偏多的时期。1971-2000年5个生态功能区的气温和降水量均呈升高趋势,在中、高排放情景下5个生态功能区的增温速率均大于气候基准年的增温速率。除河湟地区外的4个生态功能区基准年的降水增加速率均小于未来30多年3种排放情景下的降水增加速率。在这种暖湿环境中,牧草(农作物)的生长将会受到一定的影响,从而影响畜牧业和农业的发展。
英文摘要: Changes in temperature and precipitation in typical ecological function areas of the Qinghai Plateau from 2019 to 2050 were studied using representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results showed that the average annual temperatures of five ecological functional zones increase under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, the annual precipitation in the Hehuang area shows a decreasing trend, while those in other regions show an increasing trend. In the scenario of RCP 8.5, the annual precipitations in the five ecological function areas showed an increasing trend. Through annual analysis, the average temperature will peak in 2040 to 2049 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and will increase by 2.0 to 2.1 ℃ and 2.4 to 2.5 ℃ in 2040 to 2049 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, found that the average annual temperatures of the five ecological function areas in the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios all showed sharp changes, but at different times. The precipitation changes occured in different years under the three scenarios in the Chaidamu basin Basin area. The precipitation changes occur under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the Qinghai Lake area. The precipitation changes occur under RCP 4.5 in the Qilian Mountain area. The precipitation changes occur under RCP 2.6 in the Hehuang area. The precipitation changes occur under RCP 8.5 scenario for the Sanjiangyuan area. According to the accumulation of anomalies test anomalies, under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the cumulative average temperatures and precipitations of the five ecological function areas show an upward trend, indicating high temperature and precipitation levels from 2019 to 2050. From 1971 to 2000, the temperature and precipitation of the five ecological function areas showed an increasing trend, and the warming rates of the five ecological function areas in the medium-and high-emission scenarios were higher than that of the reference year. The rate of increase of precipitation in the base year of the four ecological function zones, except for the Hehuang area is less than that in the next 30 years under the three emission scenarios. In these warm and humid environments, the growth of herbage(crops) will be affected, which will affect the development of animal husbandry and agriculture.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155519
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.青海省果洛州久治县气象局
2.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,
3.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室, 果洛
4.西宁, 青海
5.青海 814499
6.810001, 中国
7.青海省气候中心, 西宁, 青海 810001, 中国
8.青海省果洛州达日县气象局, 果洛, 青海 814299, 中国

Recommended Citation:
韩有香,刘彩红,李国山. 青海高原典型生态区域未来气候变化趋势预估[J]. 草业科学,2019-01-01,36(6):79-89
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