globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6547329
论文题名:
天水市过去116年气温变化趋势及突变分析
其他题名: Features of temperature variations in Tianshui during the past 116 years
作者: 刘娜1; 胡亚飞2; 包光1
刊名: 地球环境学报
ISSN: 1674-9901
出版年: 2019
卷: 10, 期:3, 页码:810-822
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气温 ; 特征分析 ; 突变分析 ; 天水市
英文关键词: temperature ; characteristic analysis ; mutation analysis ; Tianshui
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 天水位于青藏高原东北部的副热带北部边缘,受大陆性季风气候的影响,生态环境脆弱,是研究全球变化区域响应的理想之地。基于天水市1901 2016年的月平均气温资料,运用一元线性回归、5年滑动平均和Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法分析了过去116年来天水市气温在不同尺度上的变化特征及突变节点。结果表明:天水市1901 2016年气温总体呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.058℃ ·(10a)~(-1)。各季节均表现出增温趋势,春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的线性倾向率分别为0.084℃ ·(10a)~(-1)、0.019℃ ·(10a)~(-1)、 0.022℃ ·(10a)~(-1)、0.102℃ ·(10a)~(-1)。最冷月份1月及最热月份7月同样表现出增温趋势,线性倾向率依次为0.085℃ ·(10a)~(-1)、0.038℃ ·(10a)~(-1)。年平均气温在1923年和1993年发生了两次突变。春季和秋季突变年与年平均气温基本一致,夏季气温突变存在超前和滞后现象,冬季突变时间为1978年。最冷月份1月平均气温在1977年发生突变,最热月份7月平均气温突变年份集中在2000年之后。总体而言,天水市过去一百多年来,气温呈上升趋势与全球变暖大背景一致。
英文摘要: Background, aim, and scope The change of regional environment is related to the well-being of human beings. The study of regional response characteristics of global change could help reveal the background and laws of variations in the climatic elements at the regional scale. Tianshui is located on the northern edge of the subtropical zone in the northeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. It is an ideal place to study the regional temperature response of global warming. Due to the continental monsoon climate, Tianshui has a fragile ecological environment. Therefore, the characteristics of temperature changes in the northwestern monsoon region obtained from this study have certain regional representation and indicative significance. Materials and methods Based on the monthly average temperature data of Tianshui from 1901 to 2016, using the linear regression, 5-year moving average and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, the variation characteristics of Tianshui temperature on different scales during the past 116 years were analyzed. Results The annual average temperature in Tianshui was generally rising from 1901 to 2016, with a tendency rate 0.058℃ ·(10a)~(-1). The four seasons showed warming trends and the increasing rates in spring, summer, autumn and winter were 0.084℃ ·(10a)~(-1), 0.019℃ ·(10a)~(-1), 0.022℃ ·(10a)~(-1), 0.102℃ ·(10a)~(-1). The trend of warming occurred in the coldest month (January) and the hottest month (July), and the linear tendency rates were 0.085℃ ·(10a)~(-1) and 0.038℃ ·(10a)~(-1). The abrupt years of annual average temperature occurred in 1923 and 1993. The similar abrupt years appeared in both spring and autumn average temperature. The summer temperature mutations were advanced and lagged, and the winter temperature mutation year occurred in 1978. For the coldest month in January, the average temperature was abruptly changed in 1977, and that of the hottest month in July was concentrated in the 2000s period. Discussion Global climate change has a wide-ranging impact on the natural environment and human society. The influence of rising temperature is one of the main manifestations. The analysis of temperature variation characteristics on the regional scale could help to cope with the adverse effects of climate change and enhance adaptability. Conclusions The temperature of annual, seasonal and monthly scales of the Tianshui region generally showed an upward trend from 1901 to 2016, and there were significant mutation signals, which were consistent with the background of global warming. Recommendations and perspectives The variations of climate elements are closely related to the coordinated development of regional natural environment and human society. Temperature as an important climatic factor, it is necessary to reveal its long-term features that will help to reduce the risk of climate disasters and enhance regional defense against the background of global warming.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155585
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院
2.中国科学院地球环境研究所, 陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室
3.黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室, 宝鸡
4.西安,
5.721013
6.710061
7.宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院, 陕西省灾害监测与机理模拟重点实验室, 宝鸡, 陕西 721013, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘娜,胡亚飞,包光. 天水市过去116年气温变化趋势及突变分析[J]. 地球环境学报,2019-01-01,10(3):810-822
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