globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6511527
论文题名:
基于气象因子深度学习的森林火灾预测方法
其他题名: Research on forest fire prediction method based on deep learning
作者: 孙立研1; 刘美玲2; 周礼祥1; 于洋1
刊名: 林业工程学报
ISSN: 2096-1359
出版年: 2019
卷: 4, 期:3, 页码:873-878
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 森林火灾 ; 预测模型 ; 气象因子 ; 深度信念网络 ; SMOTE算法
英文关键词: forest fire ; prediction model ; meteorological factor ; deep belief network ; SMOTE algorithm
WOS学科分类: FORESTRY
WOS研究方向: Forestry
中文摘要: 森林火灾一旦发生将对生态系统造成严重的破坏,间接导致气候的变化和极端天气频发。对森林火灾的发生进行准确预测可提前采取有效的防控措施,具有重要意义。传统林火预测模型多为数学方法和浅层神经网络,当数据量增大时易出现建模困难以及预测精度降低等问题。深度学习模型在处理大量非线性数据上具有一定的优势,其模型具有多层网络结构,通过训练大量数据可提取出具有代表性的特征值,发现数据间的隐含关系,达到准确分类预测的目的。因此,本研究提出一种基于深度学习的林火预测方法,将深度信念网络(deep belief network,DBN)作为预测模型,气象因子作为输入数据,以解决传统林火预测模型在面对大量数据时预测效果不佳的问题;同时结合过采样SMOTE(synthetic minority oversampling technique)算法,平衡林火数据集和增加训练数据量,提升了森林火灾的预测准确度。结果表明,在面对更大的数据量时,该模型预测精度明显优于其他传统林火预测模型,证明了将深度学习应用在林火预测的优越性。该研究可为深度学习在林业领域的应用提供参考。
英文摘要: In recent years,the number of occurrences of forest fire has been increased,which causes serious damage to the ecosystem,indirectly causing global warming and extreme weather. There is a clear feedback between climate change and forest fire. Climate change induces weather extremes,which leads to forest fires,while fire emissions contribute to climate change. Accurate prediction of the forest fire can enable relevant personnel to take effective prevention and control measures in advance. Controlling the occurrence of forest fire not only protects the ecological environment, but also greatly addresses climate issues,so accurate prediction of forest fires is of great significance. Traditional forest fire prediction models are mostly mathematical methods and shallow neural networks. They take the meteorological factors as the inputs to predict forest fire. When the amount of data increases,they are prone to be problems, such as modeling difficulties and reduced prediction accuracy. Deep learning has certain advantages in dealing with a large amount of nonlinear data,and its model has a multi-layer network structure. By training the deep learning model, more representative feature values can be extracted and the implicit relationship among data can be found,to achieve the purpose of accurate classification and prediction. Compared with the traditional fire prediction model,the deep learning model has a deep network,and the parameters can be adjusted autonomously through the training data, which is suitable for a large amount of nonlinear data. Therefore,this study used the deep belief network (DBN) in the deep learning model as the predictive model and the meteorological factor as the input data to solve the problem that the traditional forest fire prediction model could not predict well when faced with large amounts of data.In this study,the SMOTE (synthetic minority oversampling technique) algorithm was combined with DBN to balance the forest fire data set and increase the amount of training data,which made the forest fire data more suitable for DBN. As a result,the prediction accuracy of forest fire was improved. The prediction result of the model was compared with the support vector machine (SVM) and back propagation (BP) models. The modeling results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model can reach 84%,which was obviously better than SVM and BP network. It was demonstrated the superiority of applying deep learning to forest fire prediction. This study can provide a theoretical foundation for the application of deep learning in the field of forestry.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155886
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.东北林业大学信息与计算机工程学院, 哈尔滨, 黑龙江 150040, 中国
2.东北林业大学信息与计算机工程学院
3.哈尔滨工程大学计算机科学与技术学院,
4., 哈尔滨
5.哈尔滨,
6.150040
7.150001

Recommended Citation:
孙立研,刘美玲,周礼祥,等. 基于气象因子深度学习的森林火灾预测方法[J]. 林业工程学报,2019-01-01,4(3):873-878
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