globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6455130
论文题名:
气候变化对水文季节性迁移的影响:以水库汛期分期和极值降水为例
其他题名: The impacts of climate change on hydrologic seasonal shift: taking flood season division and extreme precipitation as examples
作者: 章梦杰1; 郭家力1; 林伟1; 郭靖2; 舒章康1; 李英海1; 张静文1
刊名: 气候变化研究进展
ISSN: 1673-1719
出版年: 2019
卷: 15, 期:2, 页码:883-892
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候变化 ; 汛期分期 ; 模糊集合 ; 季节性迁移 ; 广义极值(GEV)分布
英文关键词: Climate change ; Flood season division ; Fuzzy set ; Seasonal shift ; Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution
WOS学科分类: MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
中文摘要: 气候变化影响下水利工程的可靠设计和安全运行是广大决策者、研究者和公众共同关注的热点问题。以清江流域为研究对象,首先采用模糊集合分析法对不同温室气体排放情景(A2、A1B和B1)下的逐日降水资料进行汛期分期,再通过广义极值分布(GEV)函数对各分期的极值降水序列进行频率分析。结果表明,降水季节性迁移直接影响汛期分期;3种排放情景下未来各时段(2011-2030年、2046-2065年和2080-2099年)的主汛期较基准期均推迟且有缩短趋势。对于极值降水量级,未来情景下明显小于基准期,且这种差距随着重现期的增大而增大;主汛期明显大于前汛期和后汛期,且在时段之间的差异明显大于排放情景之间的差异。
英文摘要: Under the influence of climate change the reliable design and safe operation of hydraulic engineering has become a hot issue for decision makers, researchers and the public. Taking the Qingjiang River Basin as the research target, and using fuzzy set analysis method to classify the daily rainfall data generated under different greenhouse emission scenarios (e.g., A2, A1B and Bl), the extreme precipitation series were simulated by generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) function. The results show that climate change has changed the precipitation structure, and its seasonal shift directly affects the flood season division. Under the three emission scenarios, the main flood season in the future will be postponed and shortened compared with the baseline period. The extreme precipitation in the future (e.g., 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) is less than the baseline period, and this difference increases with the increase of the return period. The extreme precipitation in the main flood season is notably larger than that in the pre-flood season and post flood season. For extreme precipitation, the differences between periods are remarkably greater than those of emission scenarios.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/155941
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 1.三峡大学水利与环境学院, 宜昌, 湖北 443002, 中国
2.中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司, 杭州, 浙江 310014, 中国

Recommended Citation:
章梦杰,郭家力,林伟,等. 气候变化对水文季节性迁移的影响:以水库汛期分期和极值降水为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2019-01-01,15(2):883-892
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