globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6431695
论文题名:
1960-2015年淮河流域异常初、终霜日时空变化及其影响因子
其他题名: Spatial and temporal changes of the abnormal first and last frosts and their influencing factors in Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2015
作者: 马尚谦1; 张勃1; 杨文义1; 杨梅2; 魏堃1; 李帅1; 何航1; 候启1; 魏怀东3
刊名: 自然资源学报
ISSN: 1000-3037
出版年: 2019
卷: 34, 期:2, 页码:994-1002
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 农业气象学 ; 淮河流域 ; 气候变暖 ; 异常初、终霜日 ; 频率
英文关键词: agro-meteorology ; Huaihe River Basin ; climate change ; abnormal first and last frost date ; frequency
WOS学科分类: AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
中文摘要: 农作物生长关键期发生的异常初、终霜日,对农业生产造成极大损失。准确了解并掌握异常初、终霜日在淮河流域的变化规律及成因,有利于做好霜冻预报服务工作,减轻霜冻灾害的影响,对保障国家粮食稳产、高产、安全具有重大的意义。基于淮河流域1960-2015年61个气象站点逐日地面0 cm最低气温资料,采用标准差计算了初、终霜日的稳定性,使用概率密度函数定义了异常初、终霜日,利用IDW插值方法反映气候态转变前后异常初、终霜日稳定性和频率,同时利用线性倾向估计、M-K、滑动t检验和累计距平法得到气温的变化趋势及突变年份,相关系数法用来分析环流指数、气温、初霜日、终霜日之间的关系。通过研究得出以下结论:(1)淮河流域近56年来平均气温以0.18 ℃·10 a~(-1)(P<0.01)的速率呈现显著的上升趋势并且在1993年发生突变,气候态的转型促进了初霜日的推迟和终霜日的提前。(2)气候态的转变导致初、终霜日的稳定性降低,初、终霜日稳定性随经、纬度的增加而变好,初霜日稳定性随海拔升高而变好,终霜日稳定性随海拔升高而变化不显著,终霜日稳定性好于初霜日稳定性。(3)偏早初霜日频率>偏晚终霜日频率>特早初霜日频率>特晚终霜日频率,且在气候态转型后,异常初、终霜日的频率趋于降低,稳定在0~20%之间,异常初霜日发生频率整体高于异常终霜日,气候变暖对初霜日的影响大于终霜日。(4)异常初、终霜日频率时空分布差异显著,高频年代分别为1970s和1960s,低频年代为2000s。随着气候的转变,虽然异常初、终霜日频率逐步趋于稳定且处于低频趋势,但是气候转变促进了淮河流域东南部和南部的特早初霜日频率增加,南部偏早初霜日发生频率范围增加。东北部的偏晚初霜日发生频率增加,同时东南部的特晚终霜日发生频率也明显增加。(5)北半球9月极涡面积越小,淮河流域初霜日越迟(R=-0.41,P<0.01)。10月副高面积增加,初霜日推迟(R=0.39,P<0.01);2月极涡面积减小,终霜日提前(R=0.29,P<0.05)。4月副高面积增大,终霜日提前(R=-0.15,P>0.05),并且在1990年后提前趋势加快。
英文摘要: The abnormal first frost date and last frost date that occur in the critical period of crop growth will cause great losses to crop yields.It is of great significance to know and grasp the changing rules of abnormal frost date index accurately in the Huaihe River Basin to ensure the stable,high and safe grain yield of China.Ground 0 cm daily minimum temperature collected at 61 meteorological stations were used to identify the first and the last frost dates.The standard deviation was used to calculate the stability of the first and the last frost dates and the probability density function was used to define abnormal first and last frost dates.Meanwhile,IDW interpolation method was adopted to reflect the stability of first and last frost dates and the frequency of abnormal frost date before and after the transition of climate state.Moreover,linear trend estimation,Mann-Kendall mutation test,sliding t-test and cumulative averaging method were employed to obtain the mutation year in temperature.And the effect of the circulation index and air temperature on the first and the last frost dates was analyzed by correlation coefficient method.The following conclusions can be drawn from the analysis above:(1)The mean temperature of Huaihe River Basin in the period 1960-2015 showed a significant upward trend at a rate of 0.18 ℃·10 a~(-1) (P<0.01)and the mutation year happened in 1993.The transition of climate state promoted the postponement of the first frost date and the advancement of the last frost date.(2)The transition of climate state led to the decrease of the stability of first and last frost dates.The stability of first and last frost dates became much better with the increase of latitude and longitude.The stability of the first frost date became better with the increase of elevation.But the change of the last frost date is not significant even when the elevation increases.The stability of the last frost date is better than that of the first frost date.(3)There was a descending order among the frequency of earlier first frost date,later last frost date,special early first frost date,and special late last frost date.And after the transition of climatological state,the frequency of abnormal first and last frost days tends to decrease and be stable at 0-20%.On the whole,the frequency of abnormal first frost date is higher than that of abnormal last frost date.The impact of climate warming is greater on the first frost date than on the last frost date.(4)The spatial distribution of abnormal first and last frost dates was significantly different,the high frequency of which was observed in the 1970s and the 1960s,respectively,and the low frequency of which was found in the 2000s.Although the frequency of abnormal first and last frost dates was gradually stabilized and remained at a low level,the transition of climate promoted the increase of the frequency of special early first date in the southeast and south parts,partial early first frost date in the south,partial late last frost date in the northeast,and special late frost date in the southeast of the Huaihe River Basin respectively.(5)The smaller the polar vortex area is in September in the northern hemisphere,the later the first frost date is (R=-0.41,P<0.01);the smaller the polar vortex area is in February,the earlier the last frost date would be (R=0.29,P<0.01);the larger the subtropical high is in October,the later the first frost date is (R=0.39,P<0.05);the larger the subtropical high is in April,the earlier the last frost date is (R=-0.15,P>0.05).Moreover,the tendency ahead of schedule was accelerated after 1990.The result of this article is good for frost forecast services and mitigation of frost disasters.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156440
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国
2.北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院, 北京 100875, 中国
3.甘肃省治沙研究所, 甘肃省荒漠化防治重点实验室
4.甘肃民勤荒漠草地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国

Recommended Citation:
马尚谦,张勃,杨文义,等. 1960-2015年淮河流域异常初、终霜日时空变化及其影响因子[J]. 自然资源学报,2019-01-01,34(2):994-1002
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[马尚谦]'s Articles
[张勃]'s Articles
[杨文义]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[马尚谦]'s Articles
[张勃]'s Articles
[杨文义]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[马尚谦]‘s Articles
[张勃]‘s Articles
[杨文义]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.