globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5241229
论文题名:
1961-2010年白龙江流域气温和降水量变化特征研究
其他题名: Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation in the Bailong River Basin during 1961-2010
作者: 张晓晓; 张钰; 徐浩杰
刊名: 水土保持研究
ISSN: 1005-3409
出版年: 2014
卷: 21, 期:4, 页码:238-245
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 白龙江 ; 气候变化 ; 趋势 ; 突变 ; 周期
英文关键词: Bailong River ; climate change ; tendency ; mutation ; period
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 以1961-2010年白龙江流域气温和降水量资料为基础,综合运用线性趋势分析、多项式回归、Mann-Kendall 趋势性检测和突变分析、复Morlet小波分析和R/S分析等数理统计方法,在季节和年际尺度上研究了气温和降水量的趋势性、波动性、突变性、周期性和持续性。结果表明:在研究时段内四季和年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,20世纪80年代中期之前升温缓慢,90年代以来升温速率明显加快并发生暖突变。年降水量呈多-少-多-少的波动变化,整体微弱减少。春季和冬季降水量分别呈 多-少-多和少-多-少变化,整体微弱增加。夏季和秋季分别呈多-少-多-少和多 - 少变化,整体微弱减少。气温和降水量存在7,11,22a 左右的准周期变化。未来一段时间内,四季和年平均气温将可能继续升高,夏季和冬季降水量将可能增加,而春季、秋季和年降水量将可能减少。
英文摘要: Based on temperature and precipitation datasets in the Bailong River basin during 1961-2010,the seasonal and inter-annual variation characteristics including tendency,fluctuation,mutation,period and persistence of temperature and precipitation were analyzed by using linear tendency and polynomial regression model,Mann-Kendall test,complex Morlet wavelet and R/S analysis.The results showed that the seasonal and annual mean temperature had a significant increasing trend during 1961-2010;the weak warming trend was detected before mid-1980s;the increasing rate of temperature was accelerated after a warming mutation in 1990s;the annual precipitation mainly experiencedhigh-low-high-lowfluctuations.The seasonal precipitation had similar fluctuations except for the winter.The precipitation increased weakly in the spring and winter,while decreased insignificantly in the summer,autumn and year.The temperature and precipitation had periodic variation of 7,11,22 a.The potential trend of seasonal and annual mean temperature would persistent.The precipitation in the summer and winter will increase,but decrease in the spring,autumn and year in the near future.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156564
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 兰州大学资源环境学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国

Recommended Citation:
张晓晓,张钰,徐浩杰. 1961-2010年白龙江流域气温和降水量变化特征研究[J]. 水土保持研究,2014-01-01,21(4):238-245
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