globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5553544
论文题名:
不同时间尺度下的大气CO_2浓度与气候变化
其他题名: MULTIPLE TIME SCALES OF VARIATIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO_2 CONCENTRATION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE
作者: 刘植; 黄少鹏
刊名: 第四纪研究
ISSN: 1001-7410
出版年: 2015
卷: 35, 期:6, 页码:1458-1470
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 时间尺度 ; 二氧化碳 ; 气候变化 ; 全球变暖
英文关键词: time scales ; CO_2 ; climate change ; global warming
WOS学科分类: GEOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Geology
中文摘要: 要正确认识气候变化与大气CO_2浓度变化的关系,首先需要了解二者在过去不同时期的变化规律。本文分别从显生宙、中生代、新生代、中更新世、末次冰消期、全新世、过去千年以及近几十年的仪器观测记录共8个时间段,对过去约500Ma以来的大气CO_2浓度与温度指标进行了整理分析,根据记录载体和时间跨越尺度,将这些不同时间段上的古气候记录归纳为3个类型:1)以模型计算和古土壤、古生物等为记录载体的百万年及更长时间尺度的记录,CO_2和温度的变化总体趋势一致,但是由于数据误差较大,分辨率低,所以很难进行明确的因果关系研究;2)以极地冰芯为记录载体的米兰科维奇轨道时间尺度的记录,数据精度较高,为探索大气CO_2在气候变化过程中所扮演的具体角色提供了可能;3)以冰核和积雪为主要载体,包括仪器记录在内的百年及更短时间尺度的记录,虽然这个时期资料最为丰富,数据精度更高,但是气候变化的影响因素很多,很难识别大气CO_2温室效应的份量,在进行数据分析时出现了众多的解释和不确定性。对本文搜集到的数据进行综合对比,得到以下认识:1)从长趋势来看,全球温度和大气CO_2浓度均表现出降低的趋势,但两者的起伏变化并无固定的先后次序,因而对于其因果关系的解释存在很大的不确定性;2)地质时期的大气CO_2浓度有过很大的波动,存在多次高大气CO_2浓度时期,最高时可达5000ppmv以上,也存在一些低大气CO_2浓度时期,最低时可达200ppmv以下;3)依据目前的全球观测数据,大气CO_2浓度已经突破400ppmv,虽然没有确切的证据表明这一数值具有特殊的含义,但这一浓度是过去800ka(冰芯记录)以来的最高值,甚至在整个第四纪(2.58Ma)都是罕见的。
英文摘要: The atmospheric CO_2 concentration has recently exceeded 400ppmv, which deepens the concern of a potentially accelerated global climate change. To understand the relationship between climate change and atmospheric CO_2 concentration, the past is the key. In this paper, we collect and analyze past 500Ma records of atmospheric CO_2 concentration and temperature in eight time periods, namely Phanerozoic, Mesozoic, Cenozoic, middle Pleistocene, last deglaciation, Holocene, past millennium, and recent decades. According to the information carriers and time spans,we divide these records into three categories:(1) The millionaire and longer records from model calculation and paleosols or paleobotany proxies:Although the trends of the changes in atmospheric CO_2 concentration and temperature are generally consistent on this time scale,it is difficult to establish a clear causal relationship because of the great uncertainties and low resolutions of both sets of data. (2) The orbital scale records mainly from the polar ice core:High precision atmospheric CO_2 concentration and temperature reconstructions allow for an examination of the possible role of atmospheric CO_2 in the process of glacial-interglacial transformation. However, no definite causal relationship has been found. (3) The records at centennial and shorter time scales over the past millennium from ice,snow,and the instrumental data:The records are the most abundant and of highest resolutions. Moreover, there are instrumental records of atmospheric CO_2 concentrations over the recent decades. However, due to the difficulties in distinguishing the effect of the greenhouse CO_2 from other climatic factors, there are great uncertainties in the interpretation of climate change versus atmospheric CO_2 concentration. Overall, this paper comes to the following major conclusions:(1) Paleoclimate reconstructions show that global surface air temperature and atmospheric CO_2 concentration have generally decreased over the past 500Ma. However, there is no consistent sequential order in the changes between these two variables. (2) The Earth's atmospheric CO_2 concentration has a drastic fluctuation history. There were many carbon-enriched periods when atmospheric CO_2 concentration were as high as greater than 5000ppmv; whereas there were relatively fewer carbon-depleted periods when atmospheric CO_2 concentration dropped to as low as smaller than 200ppmv. (3) According to the world-wide observational data, atmospheric CO_2 concentration has recently exceeded 400ppmv. Although there is no conclusive evidence to show that this CO_2 concentration value bears any significant climate consequences, it is the highest since the last 800ka,and rare over the Quaternary (2.58Ma).
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156798
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作者单位: 西安交通大学全球环境变化研究院, 西安, 陕西 710049, 中国

Recommended Citation:
刘植,黄少鹏. 不同时间尺度下的大气CO_2浓度与气候变化[J]. 第四纪研究,2015-01-01,35(6):1458-1470
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