globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:5392636
论文题名:
我国草地螟轻发年份时空特征及其气候背景
其他题名: Temporal and spatial patterns of meadow moth (Loxostege sticticalis L.) in mild occurrence years in china and the associated climatic background
作者: 曾娟
刊名: 生态学报
ISSN: 1000-0933
出版年: 2015
卷: 35, 期:6, 页码:1899-1909
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 草地螟 ; 轻发 ; 时空特征 ; 气候
英文关键词: meadow moth ; mild occurrence ; temporal and spatial pattern ; climate
WOS学科分类: BIOLOGY
WOS研究方向: Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
中文摘要: 揭示我国草地螟在长时间序列上的年度间变化规律,探明轻发年份特点和研究意义,阐释气候变化背景对草地螟发生的影响方式。分析了1949-2012年我国草地螟发生面积的时间序列和轻重年份差异,利用2006-2012年北方主发区每年各代次各虫态发生期出现时间、有效持续时间和发生县点数等数据分析了轻发年份的时空分布特征。在19512012年可追溯的时间序列上,研究了北方草地螟主发区(169个具有连续气象资料的发生站点)年平均气温、1月月平均气温、68月累计降雨量等气候背景变化趋势与草地螟年度发生动态的相关性。结果表明:(1)在62年的长时间序列上,我国草地螟轻发年份频次多于重发年份;(2)轻发年份的总体特征是发生期迟、发生盛期短、发生区域少;(3)大尺度气象条件变化是引起草地螟年度发生动态波动的重要因素,与1951-2012年年度发生面积进行相关分析发现,年平均气温和1月份月平均气温与草地螟发生面积呈显著正相关关系,6-8月累计降雨量与发生面积呈显著负相关关系。分析指出,轻发年份是草地螟种群长期消长动态中不可忽视的环节,对轻发年份的研究是揭示其年度发生变化规律的重要途径;在长时间序列的分析方法上,可采用年度发生(幼虫)面积作为判断轻重年份发生程度的主要量化指标;利用草地螟发生区多点大尺度气象数据,与年度发生面积进行相关性分析,可作为阐释气候背景影响草地螟长期发生趋势的方法之一。
英文摘要: This paper revealed the annual population fluctuations of the meadow moth (Loxostege sticticalis L.) and demonstrated the characteristics in mild occurrence years,and the effects of climate change on its occurrence in China. The time series of the meadow moth in occurrence area were analyzed by comparing differences between the severe and mild occurrence years during 19492012. The temporal and spatial patterns of the meadow moth in mild occurrence years were demonstrated in the northern agro-pastoral regions of China during 20062012, by analyzing the appearance date, lasting period and the number of counties of each development stage and generation annually. On the traceable time series of 1951-2012, the correlation between large-scale climate indices and meadow moth occurrence levels were analyzed, using annual average temperature,average temperature of January and accumulated precipitation during June-August as crucial factors in 169 weather stations with consecutive climatic data, which are located at the occurrence area of the meadow moth. The results showed that : (1) For this migratory and intermittent out-breaking pest,the frequency of mild occurrence years was higher than that of severe occurrence years in the past 62 years. It indicated that mild occurrence was dominant situation rather than severe occurrence in the long term; (2) The mild occurrence years generally characterized by late appearance date, short occurrence duration and small damaged area; (3) The large-scale climate change had significant influence on the inter-annual fluctuation of meadow moth occurrence. The increase of occurrence area was found positively correlated with increase of both annual average temperature and average temperature of January; while, negatively correlated with the accumulated precipitation from June to August during 19512012. In conclusion, it is essential to notice the population dynamic of meadow moth in mild occurrence year in a long-term, because it is very important for understanding long term population dynamics and the outbreak patterns. The annual occurrence area could be taken as the major index to quantitatively assess the occurrence level. Correlation analysis between occurrence area and climate factors in large-scale and long-term would be an effective methodology to examine the climatic effects on the meadow moth occurrence.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/156829
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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Recommended Citation:
曾娟. 我国草地螟轻发年份时空特征及其气候背景[J]. 生态学报,2015-01-01,35(6):1899-1909
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