globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD ID: CSCD:6022356
Title:
50年来灞河流域降水变化特征分析
Alternative Title: Characteristics of Precipitation Variation of Bahe River Basin in the Past 50 years
Author: 宋扬; 周维博; 马亚鑫; 李慧; 刘博洋
Source Publication: 长江科学院院报
ISSN: 1001-5485
Publishing Year: 2017
Volume: 34, Issue:7, Pages:12-18
Language: 中文
keyword in Chinese: 降水变化 ; 灞河流域 ; Mann-Kendall检验法 ; R/S分析法 ; 小波分析
Keyword: precipitation variation ; Bahe basin ; Mann-Kendall test ; R /S analysis ; wavelet analysis
WOS Category: MINERALOGY
WOS Research Area: Mineralogy
Abstract: 为了更加深入地了解灞河流域气候变化特征,利用灞河流域近50 a的降水观测数据,运用滑动平均法、R/S分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法及小波分析法分析了灞河流域年内、年际降水的变化趋势、突变时间及降水的变化周期。结果表明:19582012年降水呈波动下降趋势,未来几年降水仍然呈下降趋势;年内降水分配极不均匀,主要集中在79月份,春季和秋季降水呈明显下降趋势,夏季和冬季降水呈微弱上升趋势;四季降水Hurst指数均< 0.5,降水序列具有反持续性和负相关性;年降水有明显突变特征,突变时间为1989年,春、夏和秋季有明显的突变点,突变时间分别为1994,1979,1985年,冬季降水无明显突变点;年降水及四季降水序列的变化周期基本在22 ~ 29,13,4 ~ 8 a的时间尺度上浮动,不同尺度上周期性变化差异较大。
English Abstract: The aim of the present research is to better understanding the characteristics of climate change in the Bahe river drainage basin. The annual and inter-annual precipitation changes,the abrupt change time,and the variation period of precipitation are analyzed based on observations in the past half century. Moving-average method,R /S analysis,Mann-Kendall test,and wavelet analysis are adopted for the research. Results reveal that 1) from 1958 to 2012,precipitation presented a decline trend with fluctuations,and will keep declining in the next several years; 2) precipitation is extremely uneven in a year,mainly focused from July to September,decreasing obviously in spring and autumn,and rising slightly in summer and winter; 3) Hurst index of precipitation in four seasons are all less than 0.5,and the precipitation series have features of anti-continuity and negative correlation; 4) annual precipitation has apparent abrupt change in 1989,and abrupt changes are also found in the spring,summer and autumn in 1994,1979,and 1985,respectively,with no abrupt change in winter; 5) the variation period of annual and seasonal precipitation fluctuates in time scales of 22-29 a,13 a,and 4-8 a,and the periodic change differs greatly in various scales.
Document Type: 期刊论文
Identifier: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/157253
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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Affiliation: 长安大学环境科学与工程学院, 旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室, 西安, 陕西 710054, 中国

Recommended Citation:
宋扬,周维博,马亚鑫,等. 50年来灞河流域降水变化特征分析[J]. 长江科学院院报,2017-01-01,34(7):12-18
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