globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
CSCD记录号: CSCD:6490374
论文题名:
新疆北疆地区旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应
其他题名: Climate Change and Response to Drought and Flood Disasters in Northern Xinjiang
作者: 郭超; 楚新正; 张扬; 栾玥; 许超宗
刊名: 西南农业学报
ISSN: 1001-4829
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期:4, 页码:929-935
语种: 中文
中文关键词: 气候特征 ; Z指数 ; 旱涝灾害 ; 北疆地区
英文关键词: Climate characteristics ; Z index ; Drought and flood disaster ; Northern Xinjiang
WOS学科分类: METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
中文摘要: 【目的】本文研究新疆北部地区旱涝灾害变化特征,及北疆地区气候变化对旱涝灾害变化的影响,为农牧业生产活动及防灾减灾提供一定的理论指导.【方法】选取北疆地区20个气象站点1961 - 2016年气温、降水逐日数据,采用趋势分析、M-K突变检验、Z指数等方法对研究区气候变化和旱涝趋势进行分析.【结果】①近56年来,北疆地区气候具有明显的冷干向暖湿转变的趋势,年平均气温以0.34 ℃·( 10 a)~(-1)的速率波动上升,气温空间变化差异明显,由北向南减少;降水量呈现波动增加趋势12.05 mm·( 10 a)~(-1),降水空间变化山区多于平原和盆地.②北疆地区涝灾发生频率( 37.5 %)大于旱灾( 30.36 %),在1991年气温发生突变;气温突变后,北疆地区涝灾发生比重增加了41 %,干旱比重减少27.9 %,正常年份和旱灾年份的比重均有所减少,暖湿化明显.【结论】近56年来,北疆地区旱涝灾害由以干旱为主转变为以洪涝为主,此变化与北疆地区气候的暖湿化变化存在一致性.
英文摘要: 【Objective】This paper studied the characteristics of drought and flood disasters in northern Xinjiang,and the impact of climate change on drought and flood disasters in northern Xinjiang,providing theoretical guidance for agricultural and livestock production activities and disaster prevention and mitigation.【Method】The daily data of temperature and precipitation of 25 meteorological stations in the northern Xinjiang region from 1961 to 2016 was selected. Trend analysis,M-K mutation test,Z-index and other methods were used to analyze climate change and drought and flood trends in the study area. 【Result】( i) In the past 56 years,the climate in the northern Xinjiang has a clear trend of cold-drying to warming and humidification,and the average annual temperature rises at a rate of 0.34 ℃·( 10 a)~(-1). The spatial distribution of temperature is significantly different,decreasing from north to south. Precipitation showed an increasing trend of fluctuations of 12.05 mm·( 10 a)~(-1),and the spatial variation of precipitation was more than that of plains and basins. ( ii) The frequency of disaster relief in northern Xinjiang ( 37.5 %) was greater than that in drought ( 30.36 %). In 1991,the temperature changed suddenly; after that the proportion of disasters in northern Xinjiang increased by 41 %,the proportion of drought decreased by 27.9 %,and the proportion ofnormal'years and drought years decreased,and warming and humidification were obvious. 【Conclusion】In the past 56 years,the drought and flood disasters in the northern Xinjiang region have changed from drought to flood,and this change is consistent with the warming and humidification of climate in northern Xinjiang.
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/157974
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830054, 中国

Recommended Citation:
郭超,楚新正,张扬,等. 新疆北疆地区旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应[J]. 西南农业学报,2019-01-01,32(4):929-935
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