In order to analyze and compare population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship based on food supply and climatic potential productivity(T_(spv))in Yunnan,population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under future climate change were predicted.In this study,using average temperature and annual precipitation observed by 117 meteorological stations in Yunnan in 1961-2015 and simulated by the global climate model in 2016-2055,the temporal-spatial changing characteristics of T_(spv) in various regions of Yunnan were calculated and analyzed by the Thornthwaite Memorial model,and T_(spv)-population carrying capacity and climate carrying capacity were constructed and calculated.The results showed that:(1)T_(spv) in Yunnan presented obvious zonal and vertical distribution.Overall,T_(spv) was higher in the south than that in the north,and higher in areas at low altitude than that in areas at high altitude.Precipitation is the main limiting factor of T_(spv) in Yunnan.(2)In 1961-2015,T_(spv) only significantly increased in partial areas of western Yunnan,significantly decreased in local areas of central Yunnan,and showed no obvious change in other areas.Average T_(spv) in Yunnan presented large inter-annual fluctuations and a significant change around 2009.(3)In 2006-2015,per capita grain supply in Yunnan grew steadily,approaching or exceeding the demand of well-off grain.Cultivated land-population carrying capacity increased year by year,but was far lower than T_(spv)-population carrying capacity.Although during year with a sharp yield reduction,T_(spv)-population carrying capacity could still meet the demand of affluent grain under current population and cultivated land scale,with a surplus human-grain relationship.(4)With current stable amplitude of population,cultivated land and productivity,T_(spv) and T_(spv)-population carrying capacity in Yunnan will increase stably,and human-grain relationship will mainly be grain surplus under different emissions in the future.The carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under high emission will be superior to low emission.