DOI: 10.1186/s13717-019-0210-8
论文题名: Current and future predicting potential areas of Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) using MaxEnt model under climate change in Northern Ethiopia
作者: Gebrewahid Y. ; Abrehe S. ; Meresa E. ; Eyasu G. ; Abay K. ; Gebreab G. ; Kidanemariam K. ; Adissu G. ; Abreha G. ; Darcha G.
刊名: Ecological Processes
ISSN: 21921709
出版年: 2020
卷: 9, 期: 1 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; MaxEnt model
; Oxytenanthera abyssinica
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Conservation
; Ecosystems
; Electric current distribution measurement
; Information management
; Natural resources
; Population distribution
; Current distribution
; Habitat distribution
; MaxEnt models
; Maximum entropy modeling
; Oxytenanthera abyssinica
; Potential distributions
; Receiver operating characteristic curves
; Resource conservation
; Climate change
; bamboo
; climate change
; maximum entropy analysis
; numerical model
; range expansion
; spatial distribution
; Ethiopia
; Oxytenanthera abyssinica
; Tanqua
英文摘要: Introduction: Climate change will either improve, reduce, or shift its appropriate climatic habitat of a particular species, which could result in shifts from its geographical range. Predicting the potential distribution through MaxEnt modeling has been developed as an appropriate tool for assessing habitat distribution and resource conservation to protect bamboo species. Methods: Our objective is to model the current and future distribution of Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) based on three representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for 2050s and 2070s using a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) in Northern Ethiopia. For modeling procedure, 77 occurrence records and 11 variables were retained to simulate the current and future distributions of Oxytenanthera abyssinica in Northern Ethiopia. To evaluate the performance of the model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used. Results: All of the AUCs (area under curves) were greater than 0.900, thereby placing these models in the “excellent” category. The jackknife test also showed that precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18) contributed 66.8% and 54.7% to the model. From the area of current distribution, 1367.51 km2 (2.52%), 7226.28 km2 (13.29%), and 5377.26 km2 (9.89%) of the study area were recognized as high, good, and moderate potential habitats of Oxytenanthera abyssinica in Northern Ethiopia, and the high potential area was mainly concentrated in Tanqua Abergele (0.70%), Kola Temben (0.65%), Tselemti (0.60%), and Tsegede (0.31%). Kafta Humera was also the largest good potential area, which accounts for 2.75%. Compared to the current distribution, the total area of the high potential regions and good potential regions for Oxytenanthera abyssinica under the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) would increase in the 2050s and 2070s. However, the total area of the least potential regions under the three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) in 2050s and 2070s would decrease. Conclusion: This study can provide vital information for the protection, management, and sustainable use of Oxytenanthera abyssinica, the resource to address the global climate challenges. © 2020, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158043
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Mekelle Agricultural Research Center (MARC), Tigray Agricultural Research Institute (TARI), P.O. Box 256, Tigray, Ethiopia; Mekelle Soil Research Center (MSRC), Tigray Agricultural Research Institute (TARI), P.O. Box 1070, Tigray, Ethiopia; Humera Agricultural Research Center (HuARC), Tigray Agricultural Research Institute (TARI), P.O. Box 62, Tigray, Ethiopia; Abergele Agricultural Research Center (AARC), Tigray Agricultural Research Institute (TARI), P.O. Box 44, Tigray, Ethiopia; Shire-Mytsebri Agricultural Research Center (SmARC), Tigray Agricultural Research Institute (TARI), P.O. Box 241, Tigray, Ethiopia
Recommended Citation:
Gebrewahid Y.,Abrehe S.,Meresa E.,et al. Current and future predicting potential areas of Oxytenanthera abyssinica (A. Richard) using MaxEnt model under climate change in Northern Ethiopia[J]. Ecological Processes,2020-01-01,9(1)