DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106290
论文题名: Modelling biophysical vulnerability of wheat to future climate change: A case study in the eastern Australian wheat belt
作者: Wang B. ; Feng P. ; Liu D.L. ; Waters C.
刊名: Ecological Indicators
ISSN: 1470160X
出版年: 2020
卷: 114 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptive capacity
; Agricultural vulnerability
; APSIM
; Crop modelling
; Wheat yield
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Plants (botany)
; Adaptation strategies
; Adaptive capacity
; Agricultural productions
; Agricultural vulnerability
; APSIM
; Global climate model
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Wheat yield
; Climate change
; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: Assessing the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change can identify knowledge gaps and direct where adaptation options are required. However, determining the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change is a challenge due to the complex nature of the problem. We propose a climate-crop modelling approach illustrated by using the APSIM crop model forced with daily climate data as a case study in eastern Australia to assess the biophysical vulnerability of wheat to future climate change. This impact assessment is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's definition of vulnerability as a derivative of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We selected one Global Climate Model (GCM) CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 representing dry conditions under high emission scenarios to explore the feasibility of proposed methodology. Our results show that, historically, the most vulnerable areas were the western parts of the wheat belt, accounting for 18% of the total wheat-growing area. However, areas of very high vulnerability would expand to central and eastern parts of the wheat belt into the future, accounting for 41% of the study area in the 2040s and 62% in the 2080s. With increased exposure to dry climate, adjusting sowing time and cultivar shift consistently improved wheat yield but were insufficient to decrease wheat vulnerability. We found the key driver for increased vulnerability was increased exposure to dry climate. We expect this study will help growers, farm advisors and state policymakers to adopt relevant adaptation strategies and promote efficient farming practices such as breeding drought-tolerant crop cultivars in highly vulnerable western areas. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158066
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural InstituteNSW 2650, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; NSW Department of Primary Industries, 34 Hampden Street, Dubbo, NSW 2830, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Wang B.,Feng P.,Liu D.L.,et al. Modelling biophysical vulnerability of wheat to future climate change: A case study in the eastern Australian wheat belt[J]. Ecological Indicators,2020-01-01,114