DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120716
论文题名: How robust are reductions in modeled estimates from GTAP-BIO of the indirect land use change induced by conventional biofuels?
作者: Malins C. ; Plevin R. ; Edwards R.
刊名: Journal of Cleaner Production
ISSN: 9596526
出版年: 2020
卷: 258 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biofuel
; CORSIA
; GTAP
; ILUC
; LCFS
; RFS
Scopus关键词: Biofuels
; Climate change
; Uncertainty analysis
; Biofuel policies
; Computable general equilibrium model
; CORSIA
; GTAP
; ILUC
; Indirect land-use changes
; LCFS
; Productivity increase
; Land use
英文摘要: Evidence from modeling studies shows that Indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions associated with biofuel policies play an important role in determining the climate performance of those policies, but the magnitude of these emissions for any given biofuel is contentious and subject to uncertainty. In this study, we examine the development since 2008 of the computable general equilibrium model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-BIO) as an ILUC modeling tool. While developments to this model over the past decade have resulted in much lower ILUC values being proposed for U.S. corn ethanol and soy biodiesel by the most recent papers than in earlier work, we find that these developments have been adopted based on limited or disputed evidence. Adjustments to the model and its input parameters have strengthened the assumed role of productivity increases as compared to land use changes in meeting feedstock demand without compelling justification, while new emission factors developed for use with the GTAP-BIO results systematically underestimate ILUC emissions. We argue that the combination of these effects has introduced a significant optimism bias into the ILUC emissions results reported in more recent studies using the GTAP-BIO framework. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158094
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Cerulogy, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley, United States; European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Malins C.,Plevin R.,Edwards R.. How robust are reductions in modeled estimates from GTAP-BIO of the indirect land use change induced by conventional biofuels?[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2020-01-01,258