DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110407
论文题名: Spatially-explicit modeling and intensity analysis of China's land use change 2000–2050
作者: Feng Y. ; Lei Z. ; Tong X. ; Gao C. ; Chen S. ; Wang J. ; Wang S.
刊名: Journal of Environmental Management
ISSN: 3014797
出版年: 2020
卷: 263 语种: 英语
英文关键词: GlobeLand30
; Land use transition
; LandCA
; Scenario projection
; Urban expansion
Scopus关键词: article
; China
; cultivated land
; forest
; government
; growth rate
; human
; human cell
; sustainable development
; urban area
英文摘要: Land use change affected by wide ranges of human activities is a key driver of global climate change. In the last three decades, China has experienced unprecedented land use change accompanied by increasing environmental problems. There is a pressing need to project and analyze long-term land use scenarios that are critical for land use planning and policymaking. Using GlobeLand30 data, we examined China's land use change from 2000 to 2010, and developed a novel LandCA model for scenario projections from 2020 to 2050. The observed and projected land use change (2000–2050) was analyzed in terms of the interval, category, and transition levels. Our findings show that land Exchange intensity is more than 3 times greater than land Quantity intensity from 2000 to 2050, and the overall rate of land use change will decelerate from 2010 to 2050. During 2000–2010, the loss of built-up land to other categories was 12.7% while the gain was 32.5%, with a growth rate 3.4 times larger than that during 2010–2050. The total amount of cultivated land continuously decreases but will not violate the Chinese “Cultivated Land Red-Line Restriction” by 2050. We speculate that the government's goal of 26% forest cover by 2050 may not be achieved, as a result of strict land use policies preventing the transformation from cultivated land to forests. This study contributes to new evaluations of long-term land use change in China for the government to adjust policies and regulations for sustainable development. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158124
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: College of Surveying & Geo-Informatics, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Space Mapping and Remote Sensing for Planetary Exploration, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China; College of Architecture & Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China; College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai, 201306, China; School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Feng Y.,Lei Z.,Tong X.,et al. Spatially-explicit modeling and intensity analysis of China's land use change 2000–2050[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2020-01-01,263