globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00886
论文题名:
Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services
作者: Rosa I.M.D.; Purvis A.; Alkemade R.; Chaplin-Kramer R.; Ferrier S.; Guerra C.A.; Hurtt G.; Kim H.; Leadley P.; Martins I.S.; Popp A.; Schipper A.M.; van Vuuren D.; Pereira H.M.
刊名: Global Ecology and Conservation
ISSN: 23519894
出版年: 2020
卷: 22
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biodiversity ; Ecosystem services ; Ensemble projections ; Models ; Policy support ; Scenarios
英文摘要: Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling communities. The biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims to fill this gap. We used global land-use and climate projections to simulate possible future impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services using a variety of models and a range of harmonized metrics. The goal of this paper is to reflect on the steps taken in BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, and suggest pathways for improvement. We identified five major groups of challenges; the need to: 1) better account for the role of nature in future human development storylines; 2) improve the representation of drivers in the scenarios by increasing the resolution (temporal, spatial and thematic) of land-use as key driver of biodiversity change and including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- and trait-level biodiversity in ecosystem services models; 4) expand the coverage of the multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data in the calibration and validation of biodiversity and ecosystem services models. Addressing these challenges would allow the development of more integrated global projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, thereby improving their policy relevance in supporting the interlinked international conservation and sustainable development agendas. © 2019 The Authors
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158128
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作者单位: Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, Halle (Saale), 06108, Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5E, Leipzig, 04103, Germany; School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, Bangor, LL57 2DG, United Kingdom; Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, SW7 5BD, United Kingdom; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, SL5 7PY, United Kingdom; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, The Hague, 2500 GH, Netherlands; Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA, United States; CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université, Paris-Saclay, Orsay, 91400, France; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, PO Box 601203, Potsdam, 14412, Germany; Radboud University, Institute for Water and Wetland Research, Department of Environmental Science, PO Box 9010, Nijmegen, 6500 GL, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Campus Agrário de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, Vairão, 4485-661, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Rosa I.M.D.,Purvis A.,Alkemade R.,et al. Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services[J]. Global Ecology and Conservation,2020-01-01,22
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