DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110316
论文题名: Modelling the effects of climate change and population growth in four intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers. The Mijas range, southern Spain
作者: Martín-Arias J. ; Martínez-Santos P. ; Andreo B.
刊名: Journal of Environmental Management
ISSN: 3014797
出版年: 2020
卷: 262 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Fisurated flow system
; Future scenarios
; Groundwater model
; Karstic aquifer
; Processing modflow
英文摘要: Groundwater is key to economic growth in the Mediterranean region. This is particularly true of areas such as southern Spain, where aquifers underpin social development by supplying water to a booming tourist industry. Intensive groundwater use raises sustainability concerns, as pumping often exceeds the long-term recharge rate. Climate change and population growth are likely to exacerbate the water supply challenge in the coming years, due to the expected decrease in rainfall and to increasing competition among users. This paper examines some of the main aquifers in the Costa del Sol region, one of Spain's leading tourist destinations, where intensive groundwater extraction has led to water table drawdowns and the desiccation of all major springs. A numerical model was developed and calibrated for the purpose of evaluating the likely evolution of the system in the future. Downscaled scenarios from global circulation models were coupled with population growth forecasts to establish a range of plausible water management scenarios. Given the relatively small size of the aquifers and the limited recharge rate, the current pumping patterns appear unsustainable. Results suggest that drawdowns in excess of 150 m could take place within the next decade, thus compromising domestic supplies. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158202
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geology and Centre of Hydrogeology at University of Malaga (CEHIUMA), Universidad de Málaga, Malaga, 29071, Spain; UNESCO Chair “Appropriate Technologies for Human Development”, Department of Geodynamics, Stratigraphy and Palaeontology, Faculty of Geological Sciences, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Martín-Arias J.,Martínez-Santos P.,Andreo B.. Modelling the effects of climate change and population growth in four intensively exploited Mediterranean aquifers. The Mijas range, southern Spain[J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2020-01-01,262