DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111386
论文题名: Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe
作者: Kozarcanin S. ; Hanna R. ; Staffell I. ; Gross R. ; Andresen G.B.
刊名: Energy Policy
ISSN: 3014215
出版年: 2020
卷: 140 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Cost-optimisation
; Decentralised heating
; EURO-CORDEX
; IPCC
; Policy
Scopus关键词: Boilers
; Climate change
; Economic analysis
; Global warming
; Heat pump systems
; Public policy
; Pumps
; Space heating
; Ambient conditions
; Cost optimisation
; Decentralised
; Economic performance
; EURO-CORDEX
; Heating degree-days
; High spatial resolution
; IPCC
; Climate models
英文摘要: Residential demands for space heating and hot water account for 31% of the total European energy demand. Space heating is highly dependent on ambient conditions and susceptible to climate change. We adopt a techno-economic standpoint and assess the impact of climate change on decentralised heating demand and the cost-optimal mix of heat pump and gas boiler technologies. Temperature data with high spatial resolution from nine climate models implementing three Representative Concentration Pathways from IPCC are used to estimate climate induced changes in the European demand side for heating. The demand side is modelled by the proxy of heating-degree days. The supply side is modelled by using a screening curve approach to the economics of heat generation. We find that space heating demand decreases by about 16%, 24% and 42% in low, intermediate and extreme global warming scenarios. When considering historic weather data, we find a heterogeneous mix of technologies are cost-optimal, depending on the heating load factor (number of full-load hours per year). Increasing ambient temperatures toward the end-century improve the economic performance of heat pumps in all concentration pathways. Cost optimal technologies broadly correspond to heat markets and policies in Europe, with some exceptions. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158248
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Inge Lehmanns Gade 10, Aarhus, 8000, Denmark; Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, 16–18 Prince's Gardens, South Kensington, London, SW7 1NE, United Kingdom; Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology, 16–18 Prince's Gardens, South Kensington, London, SW7 1NE, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Kozarcanin S.,Hanna R.,Staffell I.,et al. Impact of climate change on the cost-optimal mix of decentralised heat pump and gas boiler technologies in Europe[J]. Energy Policy,2020-01-01,140