globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124756
Projecting potential evapotranspiration change and quantifying its uncertainty under future climate scenarios: A case study in southeastern Australia
Author: Shi L.; Feng P.; Wang B.; Li Liu D.; Cleverly J.; Fang Q.; Yu Q.
Source Publication: Journal of Hydrology
ISSN: 221694
Publishing Year: 2020
Volume: 584
Language: 英语
Keyword: Climate change ; Empirical ETp models ; Potential evapotranspiration ; Random forest ; Southeastern Australia ; Uncertainty
Scopus Keyword: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) ; Benchmarking ; Climate change ; Decision trees ; Evapotranspiration ; Mean square error ; Random forests ; Uncertainty analysis ; Analysis of variance method ; Future climate scenarios ; Global climate model ; Potential evapotranspiration ; Root mean square errors ; Sources of uncertainty ; South-eastern Australia ; Uncertainty ; Climate models
English Abstract: Projecting the likely change of potential evapotranspiration (ETp) under future climate scenarios is crucial for quantifying the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic cycle and aridity conditions. However, there are different sources of uncertainty in projecting future ETp that may arise from global climate models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and multiple ETp models used. In this study, we developed three random forest-based (RF-based) ETp models with solar radiation and air temperature at eight climatic stations in southeastern Australia. With Penman model as the benchmark, their performance was firstly compared with four empirical models (Jensen-Haise, Makkink, Abtew, and Hargreaves), which requires the same meteorological inputs. In general, the RF-based ETp models showed better performance in ETp estimates across all stations, with coefficients of determination (R2) ranging from 0.68 to 0.92, root mean square errors (RMSE) ranging from 0.58 mm day−1 to 1.46 mm day−1, and relative mean bias errors (rMBE) ranging from −16.10% to 9.73%. The RF-based and empirical models were then used to project future ETp for the eight stations based on statistically downscaled daily climatic data from 34 GCMs under two different representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All models indicated that ETp was likely to increase at the eight stations. The ensemble increases of mean ETp across eight stations ranged from 33 mm year−1 (2.1%, 2040s) to 129 mm year−1 (9.2%, 2090s) and from 43 mm year−1 (2.8%, 2040s) to 248 mm year−1 (17.6%, 2090s) under RCP4.5 and under RCP8.5, respectively. In addition, we also quantified uncertainties in ETp projections originating from ETp models, GCMs, RCPs, and their combined effects using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method. Results showed that RCP-related uncertainty contributed the most to projected ETp uncertainty (around 40% for most stations) while GCM-related and ETp model-related uncertainties accounted for roughly equal amounts of projected ETp uncertainty (10%–30%). This study demonstrated the better performance of RF-based ETp models. It is advisable to use multiple ETp models driven by various GCMs under different RCPs to produce reliable projections of future ETp. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
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被引频次[WOS]:3   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
Document Type: 期刊论文
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Affiliation: School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100049, China

Recommended Citation:
Shi L.,Feng P.,Wang B.,et al. Projecting potential evapotranspiration change and quantifying its uncertainty under future climate scenarios: A case study in southeastern Australia[J]. Journal of Hydrology,2020-01-01,584
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