DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136702
论文题名: Impact of climate change on dysentery: Scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections
作者: Wu X. ; Liu J. ; Li C. ; Yin J.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 714 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Dysentery
; Impact
; Modeling
; Projection
; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Models
; Regression analysis
; Sensitivity analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Weather forecasting
; Accurate quantifications
; Dysentery
; Extreme weather events
; Generalized additive model
; Impact
; Negative binomial regression model
; Projection
; Uncertainty
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; dysentery
; extreme event
; sensitivity analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; air pressure
; climate change
; clinical research
; correlation analysis
; disease burden
; drought
; dysentery
; environmental factor
; epidemiological data
; evidence based medicine
; flooding
; geography
; heat wave
; human
; humidity
; hurricane
; incidence
; infection risk
; mathematical model
; measurement accuracy
; nonhuman
; population group
; prediction
; prediction and forecasting
; priority journal
; quantitative analysis
; regression analysis
; Review
; risk assessment
; sensitivity analysis
; temperature
; uncertainty
; weather
英文摘要: Dysentery is water-borne and food-borne infectious disease and its incidence is sensitive to climate change. Although the impact of climate change on dysentery is being studied in specific areas, a systematic review is lacking. We searched the worldwide literature using three sets of keywords and six databases. We identified and selected 98 studies during 1866–2019 and reviewed the relevant findings. Climate change, including long-term variations in factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, and short-term variations in extreme weather events, such as floods and drought, mostly had a harmful impact on dysentery incidence. However, some uncertainty over the exact effects of climate factors exists, specifically in the different indexes for the same climate factor, various determinant indexes for different dysentery burdens, and divergent effects for different population groups. These complicate the accurate quantification of such impacts. We generalized two types of methods: sensitivity analysis, used to detect the sensitivity of dysentery to climate change, including Pearson's and Spearman's correlations; and mathematical models, which quantify the impact of climate on dysentery, and include models that examine the associations (including negative binomial regression models) and quantify correlations (including single generalized additive models and mixed models). Projection studies mostly predict disease risks, and some predict disease incidence based on climate models under RCP 4.5. Since some geographic heterogeneity exists in the climate-dysentery relationship, modeling and projection of dysentery incidence on a national or global scale remain challenging. The reviewed results have implications for the present and future. Current research should be extended to select appropriate and robust climate-dysentery models, reasonable disease burden measure, and appropriate climate models and scenarios. We recommend future studies focus on qualitative investigation of the mechanism involved in the impact of climate on dysentery, and accurate projection of dysentery incidence, aided by advancing accuracy of extreme weather forecasting. © 2020 The Authors Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158351
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Recommended Citation:
Wu X.,Liu J.,Li C.,et al. Impact of climate change on dysentery: Scientific evidences, uncertainty, modeling and projections[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,714