globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.107900
论文题名:
Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming on rice production across China
作者: Liu Y.; Tang L.; Qiu X.; Liu B.; Chang X.; Liu L.; Zhang X.; Cao W.; Zhu Y.
刊名: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
ISSN: 1681923
出版年: 2020
卷: 284
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios ; Climate change ; Multi-model ensemble ; Rice ; Total production
Scopus关键词: carbon dioxide ; crop production ; crop yield ; cropping practice ; food security ; global warming ; growing season ; rice ; temperature effect ; China
英文摘要: The primary goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is to limit future global warming to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, understanding the impacts of relatively low warming level on rice production is essential to future food security of China. Here, with the latest global warming scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI) project, we assess the impacts of the two HAPPI scenarios (1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming above pre-industrial levels) on rice production for two major rice-cropping systems, including single-season rice and double-season rice (early- and late-season rice). A multi-model ensemble approach (three crop models and four climate models) was used to predict the changes of rice production across the main rice-growing regions of China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Results show that increases in mean rice growing season temperature (GST) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios are highest in central China. Likewise, the increase in GST during the reproductive growth phase (GST-r) is greater than that during the vegetative growth phase (GST-v). The whole rice-growing season duration (GSD-w) is shortened by about 3–15 and 4.5–18 days under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios, respectively. Most of the shortening in GSD-w occurs due to a shortening of the vegetative growth phase (GSD-v). Using a stepwise multiple regression procedure, we find that the yield changes of single-season rice and late-season rice are significantly negatively correlated with both GST-r and GSD-v. When examining early-season rice, yield changes are significantly negatively correlated with both GST-v and GSD-r. Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects, the impact of warming has a negative effect across the main rice-growing regions of China. The reduction is greater in the southern area than that in the northern section of the study regions. However, climatic warming has a positive effect on rice yield in low thermal regions of northeast China with CO2 fertilization effects. In other regions, CO2 fertilization will not offset the negative impacts on rice production due to climatic warming. Our results will aid in making the future adaptation strategies to moderate the negative impacts of climate warming on regional rice production across China. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158374
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China; Engineering Research Center for Smart Agriculture, Ministry of Education, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China; Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China; Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210095, China

Recommended Citation:
Liu Y.,Tang L.,Qiu X.,et al. Impacts of 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming on rice production across China[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2020-01-01,284
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