DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107828
论文题名: Statistical emulators of irrigated crop yields and irrigation water requirements
作者: Blanc É.
刊名: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
ISSN: 1681923
出版年: 2020
卷: 284 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Crop model
; Crop yields
; Irrigation
; Statistical model
; Water withdrawals
Scopus关键词: agricultural modeling
; climate change
; crop yield
; equipment
; irrigation
; irrigation system
; model validation
; simulation
; statistical analysis
; water use efficiency
英文摘要: This study provides statistical emulators of global by gridded crop models included in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project to estimate irrigated crop yields and associated irrigation water withdrawals simulated at the grid cell level. An ensemble of crop model simulations is used to build a panel of monthly summer weather variables and corresponding annual yields and irrigation water withdrawals from five gridded crop models. This dataset is then used to estimate crop-specific response functions for each crop model. The average normalized root mean square errors for the response functions range from 3% to 6% for irrigated yields and 2% to 8% for irrigated water withdrawal. Further in- and out-of-sample validation exercises confirm that the statistical emulators are able to replicate the crop models’ spatial patterns of irrigated crop yields and irrigation water withdrawals, both in levels and in terms of changes over time, although accuracy varies by model and by region. The emulators estimated in this study therefore provide a reliable and computationally efficient alternative to global gridded crop yield models. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158386
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
Recommended Citation:
Blanc É.. Statistical emulators of irrigated crop yields and irrigation water requirements[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2020-01-01,284