globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106020
论文题名:
Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming
作者: Li Z.; Fang G.; Chen Y.; Duan W.; Mukanov Y.
刊名: Agricultural Water Management
ISSN: 3783774
出版年: 2020
卷: 231
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming ; Agricultural water demand ; Central Asia ; Water balance
Scopus关键词: Agriculture ; Water supply ; Agricultural water ; Central Asia ; Crop water requirements ; Historical periods ; Scientific basis ; Water availability ; Water balance ; Water consumption ; Global warming ; arid region ; climate change ; global warming ; sustainable development ; water availability ; water budget ; water demand ; water supply ; Farghona Wiloyati ; Kazakhstan ; Kyrgyzstan ; Tajikistan ; Turkmenistan ; Uzbekistan
英文摘要: In the arid region of Central Asia, climate change leads not only to changes in water availability generated by glacier/snow melt in the alpine regions, but also to changes in water consumption. This paper evaluates agricultural water demand and water supply (represented by precipitation) for the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) under global warming conditions of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. As Central Asia is more sensitive to climate change compared to the global average, the temperature is predicted to rise by 1.7 °C and 2.6 °C and precipitation to increase by 9 % and 12 % in global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, respectively. The average crop water requirement (CWR) is expected to increase by 13 mm and 19 mm per year, respectively, under the global warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C. A widening gap between water supply and water demand is expected compared to the historical period (1976–2005) under global warming scenario of 2.0 °C. Under global warming of 2.0 °C, the anticipated water gaps between precipitation and CWR are projected to increase by 2.8 × 108 m3 and 1.5 × 108 m3 for the rainfed north Kazakhstan region and the irrigated Fergana region while the increase of precipitation could able to meet the increase in CWR under global warming of 1.5 °C. Investigating the water balance for major planting areas in water-limited Central Asia could provide a scientific basis for sustainable development of the entire region. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158630
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100000, China

Recommended Citation:
Li Z.,Fang G.,Chen Y.,et al. Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming[J]. Agricultural Water Management,2020-01-01,231
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