DOI: 10.1002/joc.6318
论文题名: Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel
作者: Hochman A. ; Kunin P. ; Alpert P. ; Harpaz T. ; Saaroni H. ; Rostkier-Edelstein D.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2020
卷: 40, 期: 4 语种: 英语
英文关键词: analogues downscaling
; climate change
; CMIP5 predictions
; Eastern Mediterranean
; seasonal precipitation
; synoptic classification
; weather regimes
Scopus关键词: Aquifers
; Climate change
; Hydrogeology
; Rain
; Rain gages
; Reservoirs (water)
; Sea level
; Down-scaling
; Eastern Mediterranean
; Seasonal precipitations
; Synoptic classification
; Weather regimes
; Climate models
英文摘要: Global climate models provide only partial information on local-scale phenomenon, such as precipitation, primarily due to their coarse resolution. In this study, statistical downscaling algorithms, based on both weather regimes and past analogues, are operated for 18 Israeli rain gauges with an altitude ranging between −200 and ~1,000 m above sea level (ASL). To project seasonal precipitation over Israel and its hydrologic basins, the algorithms are applied to six Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models for the end of the 21st century, according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The downscaled models can capture quite well the seasonal precipitation distribution, though with underestimation in winter and overestimation in spring. All models display a significant reduction of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century according to both scenarios. The winter reductions for the end of the century and the RCP8.5 scenario are found to be ~22 and ~37% according to the weather regimes and the analogues downscaling methods, respectively. Spring reductions are found to be ~10–20% larger than winter reductions. It is shown that the projected reduction results from a decrease in the frequency of the rain-bearing systems, as well as a decrease in the average daily precipitation intensity. The areas with the largest reductions in seasonal precipitation are found over the central mountains, the Mediterranean coastal area, and the Sea of Galilee hydrologic basins, which are the main fresh-water aquifers and reservoirs of Israel. The statistical downscaling methods applied in this study can be easily transferred to other regions where long-term data sets of observed precipitation are available. This study and others may serve as a basis for priority and policy setting toward better climate adaptation with associated uncertainties related to the methods used and nonstationary of the climate system. © 2019 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158634
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Tropospheric Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany; Department of Geophysics, Porter School of Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel; Department of Geography and the Human Environment, Porter School of Environment and Earth Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel; Department of Applied Mathematics, Environmental Sciences Division, Israel Institute for Biological Research, Ness-Ziona, Israel; Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra Campus, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel
Recommended Citation:
Hochman A.,Kunin P.,Alpert P.,et al. Weather regimes and analogues downscaling of seasonal precipitation for the 21st century: A case study over Israel[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2020-01-01,40(4)