DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136164
论文题名: Variability of sea ice area in the Bohai Sea from 1958 to 2015
作者: Yan Y. ; Uotila P. ; Huang K. ; Gu W.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 709 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bohai Sea
; Climate change
; Data reconstruction
; Interannual and seasonal variability
; Sea ice area
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Disaster prevention
; Freezing
; Melting
; Regression analysis
; Arctic oscillations
; Bohai Sea
; Data reconstruction
; Meteorological data
; Multiple nonlinear regression
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Predictive abilities
; Seasonal variability
; Sea ice
; annual variation
; climate change
; data set
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; reconstruction
; sea ice
; seasonal variation
; article
; Bohai Sea
; climate change
; freezing
; melting point
; North Atlantic oscillation
; sea ice
; skill
; Bohai Sea
; Pacific Ocean
; Yellow Sea
英文摘要: With the backdrop of continuous global change, it is beneficial to create consistent long-term records of sea ice area on regional scales for ice disaster prevention and risk mitigation. In this study, a piecewise multiple nonlinear regression model was developed to reconstruct long-term daily sea ice area dataset in the Bohai Sea from 1958 to 2015 by linking the related meteorological data and the satellite-derived ice area. The validation analysis show that related meteorological status corresponding to physical process had stable skill of predictive ability, which was able to account for 81% of the observational variance under consideration of sea ice state, freezing and melting phases. The reconstructed daily sea ice area dataset was further used to study the interannual and seasonal variability of sea ice area. The annual maximum ice area (AMIA) and the annual average ice area (AAIA) in the Bohai Sea exhibited a decreasing trend with fluctuation of −0.33 ± 0.18% yr−1 and −0.51 ± 0.16% yr−1 over the period of 1958–2015, respectively. The most obvious change of the Bohai Sea ice area occurred in time scale of ~30 years. The whole study period could be divided into slight increasing stage (1958–1980), significant decreasing stage (1980–1995), and moderate increasing stage (1995–2015). In most years, the annual changes of sea ice area showed an unimodal variation and the freezing period (~65 days) was longer than the melting phase (~40 days) due to the relatively higher freezing rate. In addition, high correlations between AAIA and Arctic Oscillation (AO) index (r = −0.60, p < .01) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (r = −0.69, p < .01) from 1958 to 2015 suggested AO and NAO are the primary large-scale climate factors driving the sea ice variability in the Bohai Sea. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158646
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, 00014, Finland; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Recommended Citation:
Yan Y.,Uotila P.,Huang K.,et al. Variability of sea ice area in the Bohai Sea from 1958 to 2015[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,709