DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135768
论文题名: Analysis on the carbon emission peaks of China's industrial, building, transport, and agricultural sectors
作者: Chen X. ; Shuai C. ; Wu Y. ; Zhang Y.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 709 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Carbon emission peak
; Carbon emission reduction
; China
; CKC
; LMDI
; Sectoral level
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Emission control
; Forecasting
; Carbon emission reductions
; Carbon emissions
; China
; LMDI
; Sectoral level
; Carbon
; carbon
; agricultural emission
; building
; carbon emission
; emission control
; industrial emission
; Kuznets curve
; Kyoto Protocol
; traffic emission
; agriculture
; Article
; building
; carbon footprint
; chemical analysis
; China
; concentration (parameter)
; industry
; prediction
; priority journal
; reduction (chemistry)
; theoretical model
; China
英文摘要: Carbon emission peak has become a focus of political and academic concern in global community since the launch of Kyoto Protocol. China, as the largest carbon emitter, has committed to reaching the carbon peak by 2030 in Paris Agreement. This ambitious national goal requires the endeavors of individual sectors, particularly those carbon-intensive ones. Predicting the sectoral peaks under current endeavors and understanding driving forces for the carbon emission changes in the past years are substantial for guiding the allocation of the country's future efforts. In the past studies contextualized in China, the prediction of its carbon peaks seldom appeared at the sectoral level, which is considered as a research gap. Therefore, this study predicts the peaks at four carbon pillar sectors (i.e. industrial, building, transport and agricultural sectors) and identifies the driving forces for the carbon emission changes of them. This study hypothesized Carbon Kuznets curve (CKC) as the theoretical model for predicting the peaks and used Logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) as the method to identify the driving forces. The results show that the carbon emission in the country will peak in 2036, six years later than the agreed year. The lateness of the national peak can be attributed to the significant lateness of three pillar sectors' peaks, occurring in 2031 for the industrial sector, 2035 for the building sector, 2043 for the transport sector, peak for the agricultural sector occurs four years earlier in 2026 though. Furthermore, the results show that carbon emission is significantly driven by the booming economic output and inhibited by decreasing energy intensity, but the slight fluctuation of energy structure plays a minor role in the four sectors. Policy adjustments are proposed for effectively and efficiently urging the on-time occurrence of the national peak. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158655
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: College of Economics and Management, Southwest University, Chongqing, China; School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, United States; College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing, China; School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China
Recommended Citation:
Chen X.,Shuai C.,Wu Y.,et al. Analysis on the carbon emission peaks of China's industrial, building, transport, and agricultural sectors[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,709