DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0268.1
论文题名: Dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the South Asian monsoon: Mean and extreme precipitation changes and physics parameterization impacts
作者: Huo Y. ; Peltier W.R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2020
卷: 33, 期: 6 语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Global warming
; Rain
; Weather forecasting
; Climate change projections
; Extreme precipitation
; Global warming impact
; Monsoon precipitation
; Parameterization schemes
; Precipitation extremes
; Seasonal precipitations
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Climate models
; climate change
; concentration (composition)
; downscaling
; extreme event
; monsoon
; parameterization
; precipitation intensity
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; India
英文摘要: The extreme concentration of population over South Asia makes it critical to accurately understand the global warming impact on the South Asian monsoon (SAM), but the complex orography of the region makes future projections of monsoon intensity technically challenging. Here we describe a series of climate projections constructed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for South Asia to dynamically downscale a global warming simulation constructed using the Community Earth System Model under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. A physics-based miniensemble is employed to investigate the sensitivity of the projected change of the SAM to the implementation of different parameterization schemes in WRF. We analyze not only the changes in mean seasonal precipitation but also the impact of the warming process on precipitation extremes. All projections are characterized by a consistent increase in average monsoon precipitation and a fattening of the tail of the daily rainfall distribution (more than a 50% decrease in the return periods of 50-yr extreme rainfall events by the end of the twenty-first century). Further analysis based on one of the WRF physics ensemble members shows that both the average rainfall intensity changes and the extreme precipitation increases are projected to be slightly larger than expectations based upon the Clausius–Clapeyron thermodynamic reference of 7% 8C21 of surface warming in most parts of India. This further increase can be primarily explained by the fact that the surface warming is projected to be smaller than the warming in the midtroposphere, where a significant portion of rain originates, and dynamical effects play only a secondary role. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158672
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Huo Y.,Peltier W.R.. Dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the South Asian monsoon: Mean and extreme precipitation changes and physics parameterization impacts[J]. Journal of Climate,2020-01-01,33(6)