DOI: 10.1002/joc.6297
论文题名: Observed and simulated changes in precipitation seasonality in Argentina
作者: Doyle M.E.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2020
卷: 40, 期: 3 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Argentina
; CMIP5
; precipitation concentration
; precipitation seasonality
; trends
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Spatial distribution
; Argentina
; Clustering techniques
; CMIP5
; Concentration indices
; Global climate model
; Precipitation characteristics
; Seasonality
; trends
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; CMIP
; concentration (composition)
; general circulation model
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonality
; spatial distribution
; trend analysis
; Argentina
英文摘要: Seasonality in Argentina is examined using precipitation observations from 56 weather stations north of 42°S and CRU gridded precipitation. The Walsh and Lawler Seasonality Index (SI) and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) are calculated to determine the different seasonality regimes. The main characteristic is an eastwest gradient, where precipitation tends to be more evenly distributed throughout the different months of the year in the east while rainfall in the west is concentrated in 3 months or less. High replicability values indicate that the wettest month generally occurs during a same period of months in central and northern Argentina. Several stations in eastern humid Argentina have significant positive changes in the mean of seasonality indices between 1961 and 1985 and 1986 and 2010, and increasing trend. In most cases this leads to a change in the regime from rather seasonal with a short dry season to a seasonal regime. Through a PAM Clustering technique a new regionalization of precipitation seasonality is obtained. The mean series in each cluster show a tendency towards more seasonal and highly seasonal regimes in all regions. The SI and PCI indices were calculated using the precipitation outputs of 18 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to examine the ability of these models to represent seasonality spatial distribution and changes in Argentina. To some extent the spatial distribution of seasonality is captured by models; however, there are considerable discrepancies in the location and extension of the eastwest gradient. The sign and location of trends and changes in the mean SI and PCI are adequately reproduced in only a few models. The low ability of GCMs to represent seasonality and its changes is a consequence of the difficulties GCMs have simulating precipitation characteristics in Argentina reported by different authors. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158680
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA, CONICET-UBA-UMIIFAECI), Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Recommended Citation:
Doyle M.E.. Observed and simulated changes in precipitation seasonality in Argentina[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2020-01-01,40(3)