DOI: 10.1002/joc.6286
论文题名: Evaluation of the Climate Extremes Index over the United States using 20th and mid-21st century North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program data
作者: Aiken E.K. ; Rauscher S.A.
刊名: International Journal of Climatology
ISSN: 8998418
出版年: 2020
卷: 40, 期: 3 语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate extremes
; extreme events
; indices
; NARCCAP
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Disasters
; Drought
; Greenhouse gases
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Climate extremes
; Extreme events
; indices
; Maximum and minimum temperatures
; NARCCAP
; Palmer drought severity indices
; Regional climate changes
; Regional climate modeling
; Climate change
; climate change
; drought
; environmental assessment
; extreme event
; regional climate
; risk assessment
; United States
英文摘要: Much of our current risk assessment, especially for extreme events and natural disasters, comes from the assumption that the likelihood of future extreme events can be predicted based on the past. However, as global temperatures rise, established climate ranges may no longer be applicable, as historic records for extremes such as heat waves and floods may no longer accurately predict the changing future climate. To assess extremes (present-day and future) over the contiguous United States, we used NOAA's Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which evaluates extremes in maximum and minimum temperature, extreme one-day precipitation, days without precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The CEI is a spatially sensitive index that uses percentile-based thresholds rather than absolute values to determine climate “extremeness” and is thus well-suited to compare extreme climate across regions. We used regional climate model data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to compare a late 20th century reference period to a mid-21st century “business as usual” (SRES A2) greenhouse gas-forcing scenario. Results show a universal increase in extreme hot temperatures across all models, with annual average maximum and minimum temperatures exceeding 90th percentile thresholds consistently across the continental United States. Results for precipitation indicators have greater spatial variability from model to model, but indicate an overall movement towards less frequent but more extreme precipitation days in the future. Due to this difference in response between temperature and precipitation, the mid-21st century CEI is primarily an index of temperature extremes, with 90th percentile temperatures contributing disproportionately to the overall increase in climate extremeness. We also examine the efficacy of the PDSI in this context in comparison to other drought indices. © 2019 Royal Meteorological Society Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158682
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, United States
Recommended Citation:
Aiken E.K.,Rauscher S.A.. Evaluation of the Climate Extremes Index over the United States using 20th and mid-21st century North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program data[J]. International Journal of Climatology,2020-01-01,40(3)