DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136074
论文题名: Flash droughts in the Pearl River Basin, China: Observed characteristics and future changes
作者: Li J. ; Wang Z. ; Wu X. ; Guo S. ; Chen X.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 707 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Flash drought
; Future changes
; The Pearl River Basin
; Variable infiltration capacity
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Gems
; Rivers
; Watersheds
; Future changes
; Global climate model
; Heat waves
; Historical changes
; Pearl River basin
; Precipitation deficits
; Upward trend
; Variable infiltration capacities
; Drought
; climate modeling
; drought
; future prospect
; global climate
; heat wave
; infiltration
; precipitation assessment
; river basin
; article
; China
; drought
; global climate
; heat
; precipitation
; river basin
; China
; Guangdong
; Zhujiang Basin
英文摘要: Heat wave flash drought or precipitation deficit flash drought has devastating impacts on society and the environment. This study explored the historical changes (1960–2015) of the two categories of flash drought over the Pearl River Basin (PRB) in China, and revealed how they would change in the future (2016–2100), by coupling the variable infiltration capacity mode with the global climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios. Our results indicate that during 1960–2015, the mid-northern PRB has experienced heat wave flash drought frequently while the western PRB suffered from precipitation deficit flash drought. In future, heat wave flash drought under RCP2.6 and 4.5 would occur mostly in the western and eastern PRB. Specifically, heat wave flash drought would become severe under RCP8.5, especially for the eastern PRB. However, precipitation deficit flash drought would be concentrated in the western PRB. Except for the central regions, PRB generally exhibits a significant upward trend in heat wave flash drought under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, distinct increases in both categories of flash drought across almost the whole PRB are expected. For precipitation deficit flash drought, only a few regions show significant upward trends under RCP2.6 and 4.5. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158721
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, 510641, China; Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Safety and Greenization for Water Conservancy Project, Guangzhou, 510641, China; Center for Water Resource and Environment, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China
Recommended Citation:
Li J.,Wang Z.,Wu X.,et al. Flash droughts in the Pearl River Basin, China: Observed characteristics and future changes[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,707