globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-805-2020
论文题名:
Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments
作者: Harrison S.P.; Gaillard M.-J.; Stocker B.D.; Vander Linden M.; Klein Goldewijk K.; Boles O.; Braconnot P.; Dawson A.; Fluet-Chouinard E.; Kaplan J.O.; Kastner T.; Pausata F.S.R.; Robinson E.; Whitehouse N.J.; Madella M.; Morrison K.D.
刊名: Geoscientific Model Development
ISSN: 1991959X
出版年: 2020
卷: 13, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, both in reconstructing LULC from the archaeological data and in implementing these reconstructions into global scenarios of LULC, we propose a protocol to evaluate the revised scenarios using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and climate. Further evaluation of the revised scenarios involves carbon cycle model simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice core records of CO2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, the protocol outlines how the improved LULC reconstructions will be used in palaeoclimate simulations in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to quantify the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations. © 2020 The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158754
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden; Ecological and Forestry Applications Research Centre, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain; Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Department of Archaeology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Hague, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; University Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Department of General Education, Mount Royal University, Calgary, AB, Canada; School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany; Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Centre ESCER, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, Montreal, QC, Canada; Department of Anthropology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, United States; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Science, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, United Kingdom; Department of Humanities (CaSEs), University Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain; ICREA, Passeig Lluís Companys 23, Barcelona, 08010, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Harrison S.P.,Gaillard M.-J.,Stocker B.D.,et al. Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments[J]. Geoscientific Model Development,2020-01-01,13(2)
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