globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135872
论文题名:
Land-use change drives present and future distributions of Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)
作者: Liu T.; Wang J.; Hu X.; Feng J.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 706
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate changes ; Fall armyworm ; Global distribution ; Land-use change ; Predict ; Topography
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Crops ; Ecosystems ; Land use ; Population distribution ; Topography ; Distribution patterns ; Fall armyworm ; Global distribution ; Habitat suitability ; Land-use change ; Predict ; Species distributions ; Spodoptera frugiperda ; Climate change ; climate change ; global change ; habitat selection ; land use change ; moth ; pest species ; spatial distribution ; topographic effect ; article ; Asia ; Brazil ; cell proliferation ; Central Africa ; Central America ; climate change ; crop ; Florida ; global change ; habitat ; land use ; Mexico ; nonhuman ; pasture ; seashore ; species distribution ; Spodoptera frugiperda ; topography ; Brazil ; Central America ; Florida [United States] ; Mexico [North America] ; United States ; Lepidoptera ; Noctuidae ; Spodoptera frugiperda
英文摘要: The fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda J.E. Smith) is one of the most notorious pests of several crops in the world. However, to date, few studies have simulated the future distribution patterns of fall armyworm under rapid global changes. Though the relative influences of climate and land-use on species distribution might depend on the spatial scales of the studies, it is not known whether this rule is applicable to pests which mostly feed on crops. Here, we developed MaxEnt models to explore the distribution patterns of fall armyworm, as well as the relative influences of land-use change, topography and climate change on them. Under the present conditions and scenarios of RCP 2.6 and 8.5 (the most optimistic and pessimistic emissions scenarios, respectively), high potential habitats of fall armyworm were mostly recorded along the east coast areas of the USA, the State of Florida, Mexico, Central America, southern part of Brazil, central Africa, and southern Asia. Among all of the continents, Africa will face the greatest increase of the threats from fall armyworm in future. Under RCP 2.6 scenario, both the potential habitats and areas with increased habitat suitability were larger than those under RCP 8.5. Therefore, much more effort is required to control fall armyworm under RCP 2.6 scenario. Compared to climate change, land-use changes are more important in shaping the distribution patterns of fall armyworm. Therefore, the concentration of resources might modify the relative influence of climate and land-use in species distributions at large scales. Thus, regulating land-use might prove effective for mitigating the proliferation of fall armyworm. In general, C4 annual crops and managed pastures provide more suitable habitats for fall armyworm than C3 annual crops. Our findings demonstrate that delineating resource concentrations could provide a new approach towards controlling fall armyworm under current and future global change. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158768
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Life Science and Agronomy, Dali University, No. 2 Hongsheng Road, Dali, 671003, China; Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. 11 Datun Road, Beijing, 100101, China

Recommended Citation:
Liu T.,Wang J.,Hu X.,et al. Land-use change drives present and future distributions of Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,706
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