DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106566
论文题名: Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature
作者: Siddig K. ; Stepanyan D. ; Wiebelt M. ; Grethe H. ; Zhu T.
刊名: Ecological Economics
ISSN: 9218009
出版年: 2020
卷: 169 语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Global climate change
; Interventions
; Local yield changes
; The Sudan
Scopus关键词: agrometeorology
; climate change
; climate forcing
; global climate
; rainfed agriculture
; river basin
; temperature profile
; yield response
; Sudan
; United States
英文摘要: Sudan is a country with a predominantly rainfed agriculture which is a major contributor to GDP, foreign exchange earnings, and livelihoods. However, with current and projected environmental changes on the horizon there is an urgent need to measure and analyze the impact of these changes. This study analyzes the economy-wide impacts of climate change and consults national policy plans, strategies, and environmental assessments to identify interventions for mitigating the effects. We feed climate forcing data, projected water demand, and macro-socioeconomic trends into a modeling suite, which includes models for global hydrology, river basin management, water stress, and crop growth. This modeling suite provides us with annual crop yields and global food prices under various climate change scenarios until 2050. The effects from climate change are assessed by using a single country dynamic CGE model for the Sudan. Additionally, we introduce yield variability into the CGE model based on stochastic shocks of crop yields until 2050. The results reveal that extreme negative variability could cost the Sudan cumulatively US$ 105.5 billion in GDP between 2018 and 2050 compared to a baseline scenario without climate change. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158773
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Germany; Department of Agricultural Economics, Khartoum University, Sudan; Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany; ZJU-UIUC Institute, Zhejiang University, International Campus, China
Recommended Citation:
Siddig K.,Stepanyan D.,Wiebelt M.,et al. Climate change and agriculture in the Sudan: Impact pathways beyond changes in mean rainfall and temperature[J]. Ecological Economics,2020-01-01,169