globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00840
论文题名:
Modeling the potential distribution of Zelkova schneideriana under different human activity intensities and climate change patterns in China
作者: Sun J.; Qiu H.; Guo J.; Xu X.; Wu D.; Zhong L.; Jiang B.; Jiao J.; Yuan W.; Huang Y.; Shen A.; Wang W.
刊名: Global Ecology and Conservation
ISSN: 23519894
出版年: 2020
卷: 21
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Endangered species ; Global climate change ; MaxEnt ; Potential distribution area
英文摘要: The influence of climate change and human activities on the distribution and biodiversity of endangered plants has been a hot topic over recent years. In the future, the use of species distribution modeling will be of great theoretical and practical significance for the prediction of trends in the spatial change of suitable habitats of threatened species as a result of climate change. Since 2018, Zelkova schneideriana has been listed in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species as “Vulnerable”. Based on current species location data, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate potential habitat changes for Z. schneideriana under predicted climate change scenarios. The simulation results showed the precipitation of the driest quarter was determined to be the key influential variable that affected the natural habitat distribution of Z. schneideriana the most (accounting for 70.8%). The precipitation of driest month was the most influential factor for the human-influenced Z. schneideriana (accounting for 29.2%). The simulated distribution area of Z. schneideriana showed possibly future loss (more lost suitable areas and less expansion suitable area). Meanwhile, the trees may not be able to reach the simulated expansion of suitable areas under natural conditions because of the dispersal limitation and geographic barriers. Therefore, the distribution of Z. schneideriana may be greatly diminished in the future, even under human-managed environment in the future if in situ conservation measures are not instigated in time. © 2019 The Authors
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158825
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China; Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, 311300, China; The Key Laboratory of Conservation Biology for Endangered Wildlife of the Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China; Zhejiang Academy of Forestry, Hangzhou, 310023, China; Zhejiang Forestry Technology Promotion Administration, Hangzhou, 310020, China

Recommended Citation:
Sun J.,Qiu H.,Guo J.,et al. Modeling the potential distribution of Zelkova schneideriana under different human activity intensities and climate change patterns in China[J]. Global Ecology and Conservation,2020-01-01,21
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