DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13143
论文题名: Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator–prey interaction: Simpler works better
作者: Ramakers J.J.C. ; Gienapp P. ; Visser M.E.
刊名: Journal of Animal Ecology
ISSN: 218790
出版年: 2020
卷: 89, 期: 3 语种: 英语
英文关键词: demographic processes
; global climate change
; match–mismatch hypothesis
; Parus major
; phenology
; selection
Scopus关键词: Parus major
英文摘要: Global climate change has sparked a vast research effort into the demographic and evolutionary consequences of mismatches between consumer and resource phenology. Many studies have used the difference in peak dates to quantify phenological synchrony (match in dates, MD), but this approach has been suggested to be inconclusive, since it does not incorporate the temporal overlap between the phenological distributions (match in overlap, MO). We used 24 years of detailed data on the phenology of a predator–prey system, the great tit (Parus major) and the main food for its nestlings, caterpillars, to estimate MD and MO at the population and brood levels. We compared the performance of both metrics on two key demographic parameters: offspring recruitment probability and selection on the timing of reproduction. Although MD and MO correlated quadratically as expected, MD was a better predictor for both offspring recruitment and selection on timing than MO. We argue—and verify through simulations—that this is because quantifying MO has to be based on nontrivial, difficult-to-verify assumptions that likely render MO too inaccurate as a proxy for food availability in practice. Our results have important implications for the allocation of research efforts in long-term population studies in highly seasonal environments. © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158876
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, Netherlands; Biometris, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; Michael-Otto-Institut im NABU, Bergenhusen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Ramakers J.J.C.,Gienapp P.,Visser M.E.. Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator–prey interaction: Simpler works better[J]. Journal of Animal Ecology,2020-01-01,89(3)