DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-1114-9
论文题名: Developmental cost theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming
作者: Marshall D.J. ; Pettersen A.K. ; Bode M. ; White C.R.
刊名: Nature Ecology and Evolution
ISSN: 2397334X
出版年: 2020
卷: 4, 期: 3 语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: aquatic species
; article
; greenhouse effect
; human cell
; metabolism
; nonhuman
; terrestrial species
英文摘要: Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here, we develop, parameterize and test developmental cost theory, a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimized (Topt). Our developmental cost theory-derived estimates of Topt predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across seven phyla remarkably well (R2 ~0.83). Developmental cost theory predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to developmental costs are predicted to strongly affect population replenishment and developmental cost theory provides a mechanistic foundation for determining which species are most at risk. Developmental cost theory predicts that tropical aquatic species and most non-nesting terrestrial species are likely to incur the greatest increase in developmental costs from future warming. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/158946
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Centre for Geometric Biology, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Lund University, Lund, Sweden; Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Marshall D.J.,Pettersen A.K.,Bode M.,et al. Developmental cost theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming[J]. Nature Ecology and Evolution,2020-01-01,4(3)