DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0331.1
论文题名: Summertime surface wind variability over northeastern North America at multidecadal to centennial time scales via statistical downscaling
作者: Lucio-Eceiza E.E. ; González-Rouco J.F. ; García-Bustamante E. ; Navarro J. ; Rojas-Labanda C. ; Beltrami H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2020
卷: 33, 期: 5 语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Choice of parameters
; Large-scale circulation
; Large-scale dynamics
; Local information
; Multi-decadal time scale
; Multiple configurations
; Statistical downscaling
; Wind variabilities
; Climate models
; atmospheric circulation
; data set
; decadal variation
; downscaling
; summer
; surface wind
; trend analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; wind field
; zonal wind
; North America
英文摘要: The variability of the surface zonal and meridional wind components over northeastern North America during June-October is analyzed through a statistical downscaling (SD) approach that relates the main wind and large-scale circulation modes. An observational surface wind dataset of 525 sites over 1953-2010 provides the local information. Twelve global reanalyses provide the large-scale information. The large-to-local variability of the wind field can be explained, to a large extent, in terms of four coupled modes of circulation explaining a similar amount of variance. The SD method is mostly sensitive to the number of retained modes and subregionally to the large-scale information variable, but not to the reanalysis source. The SD methodological uncertainty based on the use of multiple configurations is directly related to the variability of the wind, similar in relative terms for both components. With an adequate choice of parameters the SD estimates provide more realistic variances than the reanalysis wind, although their correlations with respect to observations are lower than the latter. Additionally, while these different SD estimations are very similar on the reanalysis used, the various reanalysis wind fields show noticeable differences, especially in their variances.The wind variability is reconstructed back to 1850,making use of century-long reanalyses and two additional SLP gridded datasets, which allows estimating the variability at decadal to multidecadal time scales. Recent negative (significant) trends in the zonal component do not stand out in themultidecadal context, but they are consistent with a global stilling process, and are partially attributable to changes in the large-scale dynamics. © 2020 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159093
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense Madrid, Instituto de Geociencias (UCM-CSIC), Madrid, Spain; División de Energías Renovables, Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (CIEMAT), Madrid, Spain; Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Institute, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Lucio-Eceiza E.E.,González-Rouco J.F.,García-Bustamante E.,et al. Summertime surface wind variability over northeastern North America at multidecadal to centennial time scales via statistical downscaling[J]. Journal of Climate,2020-01-01,33(5)