globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083898
论文题名:
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models
作者: Rugenstein M.; Bloch-Johnson J.; Gregory J.; Andrews T.; Mauritsen T.; Li C.; Frölicher T.L.; Paynter D.; Danabasoglu G.; Yang S.; Dufresne J.-L.; Cao L.; Schmidt G.A.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Geoffroy O.; Knutti R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 948276
出版年: 2020
卷: 47, 期:4
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Climate sensitivity ; CO2 concentration ; Coupled climate model ; Equatorial Pacific ; Extrapolation methods ; Global feedback ; Spatial patterns ; Time dependent ; Climate models ; carbon dioxide ; climate change ; climate modeling ; global warming ; simulation ; Pacific Ocean ; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
英文摘要: The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial-length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid-latitudes. Time-dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming. © 2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159180
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; NCAS, University of Reading, Reading, PA, United States; UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark; LMD/IPSL, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Sorbonne Université, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, École Polytechnique, Paris, France; School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hang Zhou, China; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France

Recommended Citation:
Rugenstein M.,Bloch-Johnson J.,Gregory J.,et al. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020-01-01,47(4)
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