DOI: 10.5194/bg-17-1147-2020
论文题名: African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future CO2 conditions
作者: Scheiter S. ; Moncrieff G.R. ; Pfeiffer M. ; Higgins S.I.
刊名: Biogeosciences
ISSN: 17264170
出版年: 2020
卷: 17, 期: 4 语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: biome
; carbon dioxide
; carbon sequestration
; climate modeling
; environmental conditions
; hypothesis testing
; mixing ratio
; policy making
; Africa
英文摘要: Current rates of climate and atmospheric change are likely higher than during the last millions of years. Even higher rates of change are projected in CMIP5 climate model ensemble runs for some Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The speed of ecological processes such as leaf physiology, demography or migration can differ from the speed of changes in environmental conditions. Such mismatches imply lags between the actual vegetation state and the vegetation state expected under prevailing environmental conditions. Here, we used a dynamic vegetation model, the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), to study lags between actual and expected vegetation in Africa under a changing atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio. We hypothesized that lag size increases with a more rapidly changing CO2 mixing ratio as opposed to slower changes in CO2 and that disturbance by fire further increases lag size. Our model results confirm these hypotheses, revealing lags between vegetation state and environmental conditions and enhanced lags in fire-driven systems. Biome states, carbon stored in vegetation and tree cover in Africa are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future levels. When averaged across all biomes and simulations with and without fire, times to reach an equilibrium vegetation state increase from approximately 242 years for 200ppm to 898 years for 1000ppm. These results have important implications for vegetation modellers and for policy making. Lag effects imply that vegetation will undergo substantial changes in distribution patterns, structure and carbon sequestration even if emissions of fossils fuels and other greenhouse gasses are reduced and the climate system stabilizes. We conclude that modelers need to account for lag effects in models and in data used for model testing. Policy makers need to consider lagged responses and committed changes in the biosphere when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. © 2020 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159184
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt am Main, 60325, Germany; Fynbos Node, South African Environmental Observation Network, Claremont, 7735, South Africa; Centre for Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa; Chair of Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstraße 30, Bayreuth, 95440, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Scheiter S.,Moncrieff G.R.,Pfeiffer M.,et al. African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO2 under recent and near-future CO2 conditions[J]. Biogeosciences,2020-01-01,17(4)