DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135245
论文题名: Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs
作者: Yao N. ; Li L. ; Feng P. ; Feng H. ; Li Liu D. ; Liu Y. ; Jiang K. ; Hu X. ; Li Y.
刊名: Science of the Total Environment
ISSN: 489697
出版年: 2020
卷: 704 语种: 英语
英文关键词: China
; Drought
; Drought characteristics
; Global climate model
; Projection
; Standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Crops
; Evapotranspiration
; China
; Drought characteristics
; Global climate model
; Projection
; Standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index
; Drought
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; crop yield
; drought
; evapotranspiration
; global climate
; precipitation (climatology)
; spatiotemporal analysis
; adaptation
; air temperature
; Article
; China
; climate change
; concentration (parameter)
; drought
; evapotranspiration
; global climate
; harvest
; maize
; meteorological phenomena
; nonhuman
; precipitation
; priority journal
; agriculture
; ecosystem
; environmental monitoring
; procedures
; theoretical model
; China
; Gossypium hirsutum
; Zea mays
; rain
; Agriculture
; China
; Climate Change
; Droughts
; Ecosystem
; Environmental Monitoring
; Models, Theoretical
; Rain
英文摘要: Droughts have destructive impacts on agricultural production; thus, drought projections are vital for the development of future drought mitigation strategies. This work aimed to project a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 3-, 6- and 12-month timescales for the period 2011–2100 under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios – RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in mainland China and to assess the changes in various drought indices over a baseline period of 1961–2000. The spatiotemporal variations in drought characteristics (e.g., the drought occurrence time, duration, severity, peak, and frequency and the percentage of stations suffering from drought (PSSD) were estimated by the projected SPEI for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. The results showed that mainland China would experience more frequent and severe droughts in the future than in the baseline period, as denoted by SPEI and the generated drought variables. In particular, drier areas of northwestern China were likely to suffer from worse drought conditions than those in other areas, with PSSD values of 60% and 81% by 2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Although the annual precipitation was projected to increase in most regions, drought conditions would still worsen because of increased the minimum and maximum air temperatures. However, the GCMs contributed more uncertainties to the projection of the SPEI than the stations or the RCPs, because the GCMs made a larger contribution to the variance (>40%). The SPEI performed better than the other indices that only accounted for the influence of a single variable. The relationship between crop yields and the three drought indices varied by month, crop (maize and cotton), and timescale (3- and 6-month). The drought projections from our study can provide invaluable information for stakeholders in developing regionally specific drought adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159227
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; Key Lab of Agricultural Water and Soil Engineering of Education Ministry, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, 712100, China; School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Yao N.,Li L.,Feng P.,et al. Projections of drought characteristics in China based on a standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index and multiple GCMs[J]. Science of the Total Environment,2020-01-01,704