DOI: 10.1016/j.joule.2019.11.012
论文题名: Experience Curves for Operations and Maintenance Costs of Renewable Energy Technologies
作者: Steffen B. ; Beuse M. ; Tautorat P. ; Schmidt T.S.
刊名: Joule
ISSN: 25424351
出版年: 2020
卷: 4, 期: 2 语种: 英语
英文关键词: cost projection
; experience curve
; innovation studies
; onshore wind
; operations and maintenance
; solar PV
Scopus关键词: Cost reduction
; Dynamics
; Economics
; Investments
; Life cycle
; Maintenance
; Renewable energy resources
; Solar concentrators
; Solar power generation
; Wind turbines
; Cost projections
; Experience curves
; Innovation studies
; Onshore winds
; Operations and maintenance
; Solar PVs
; Cost benefit analysis
; alternative energy
; cost analysis
; energy planning
; innovation
; investment
; photovoltaic system
; solar power
; wind power
; wind turbine
; Germany
英文摘要: Given the decline in investment costs for renewable energy technologies, other cost components have become increasingly important. In 2017, operations and maintenance (O&M) accounted for 20%–25% of lifecycle costs for wind and solar plants in Europe, but the understanding of O&M dynamics is limited. Presenting new data from Germany, here, we consider cumulative operating experience to estimate O&M experience curves for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic (PV). Results indicate O&M cost reductions with each doubling of cumulative experience of 9.2%–12.8% for onshore wind and of 15.7%–18.2% for solar. Drawing on expert interviews and archival information, we describe mechanisms regarding how O&M experience led to lower costs, including economies of scale, upsizing, learning by doing, and learning by using and learning by interacting, comparing both technologies. Moreover, regulatory changes fostered competitive pressure toward cost reductions. Our results suggest that dynamic cost reduction potentials for O&M need to be considered in energy system planning, modeling, and optimization. Energy scenarios in line with the Paris Agreement suggest massive investments in wind turbines and solar photovoltaics (PVs). Thus, understanding their cost reduction dynamics is key to detail feasible transition pathways and to identify necessary support measures. Past research mainly studied the development of equipment and installation cost. However, other cost components gain in importance. Here, we study operations and maintenance (O&M) costs and deliver a quantitative and qualitative description of their dynamics. Our results are based on data for wind turbines and solar PV systems in Germany but have global implications. The depiction of O&M cost dynamics by experience curves allows to project future cost reductions, informing energy system planning and the design of support policies. For researchers, the method allows to endogenize O&M cost dynamics in energy system and integrated assessment models, improving the precision of scenarios and the informational value of modeling results. Operations and maintenance (O&M) cost for renewables become increasingly important, accounting for 20%–25% of lifecycle costs for wind and solar plants in 2017. Understanding the dynamics of these costs will allow to increase the precision of modeling results in energy system and integrated assessment models and improve planning by various stakeholders. We estimate O&M experience curves for renewable energy technologies, evaluate mechanisms regarding how O&M experience led to lower costs, and demonstrate a projection of O&M costs until 2030. © 2019 Elsevier Inc. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159244
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences, Energy Politics Group, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland; Institute of Science, Technology and Policy, ETH Zurich, Zurich, 8092, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Steffen B.,Beuse M.,Tautorat P.,et al. Experience Curves for Operations and Maintenance Costs of Renewable Energy Technologies[J]. Joule,2020-01-01,4(2)