DOI: 10.1029/2019GL085905
论文题名: Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions
作者: Larson E.J.L. ; Portmann R.W. ; Solomon S. ; Murphy D.M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 948276
出版年: 2020
卷: 47, 期: 3 语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climatology
; Enthalpy
; Greenhouse gases
; Sea level
; Anthropogenic aerosols
; Anthropogenic emissions
; Global mean surface temperature
; Global-mean temperature
; Model inter comparisons
; Radiative forcings
; Temperature response
; Thermosteric sea level
; Climate models
; aerosol
; anthropogenic effect
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; decadal variation
; emission
; greenhouse gas
; radiative forcing
; sea level change
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; temperature effect
英文摘要: We present an alternative method of calculating the historical effective radiative forcing using the observed temperature record and a kernel based on the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) temperature response. This estimate is the effective radiative forcing time series that the average climate model would need to simulate the observed global mean surface temperature anomalies. We further infer the anthropogenic aerosols radiative forcing as a residual using the better-known greenhouse gas radiative forcing. This allows an independent estimate of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing, which suggests a cooling influence due to aerosols in the early part of the twentieth century. The temporal kernels are also used to calculate decadal contributions from the dominant forcing agents to present-day temperature, ocean heat content, and thermosteric sea level rise. The current global mean temperature anomaly is dominated by emissions in the past two decades, while current ocean heat content is more strongly affected by earlier decades. ©2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/159257
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Larson E.J.L.,Portmann R.W.,Solomon S.,et al. Decadal Attribution of Historic Temperature and Ocean Heat Content Change to Anthropogenic Emissions[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020-01-01,47(3)